Standpoints (Blog)

A Mess

My friend is sad:
- There was not a coup, even as a farce, like in August 1991!
I answer him:
- Either way, Russia has disgraced itself extremely in the eyes of the whole world! She looks like an alcoholic who rolls up his sleeves, threatens to fight, and falls dead drunk under the table.
Russia is a mess where an ex-prisoner can call the president an asshole and get to Moscow with his gang without any problems.
And Putin became a caricature: coward, running in disgrace, making a deal with a thug who blackmailed him. And this is a man with a nuclear briefcase!


A black swan flaps its wings over Russia

Russia is at a bifurcation point. Even the smallest impact can have huge consequences.
All scenarios, even with negligible probability, are possible: from a storm in a teacup to a catastrophic tsunami.
A black swan flaps its wings over Russia.
The Hour of the unknown unknowns!


Game of Thrones

Now is the time to recall my unchanging thesis about Prigogin (I may have to change it):
- Prigozhin is a power tool of those parts of the Russian elites (oligarchs, Chekists, military, police) who want to overthrow Putin from power, but are afraid to do it themselves.

When Putin will be removed from power with the help of the Prigozhin power tool, Prigozhin and PMC "Wagner" will be disposed of. Prigozhin is expendable material, he is doomed, Putin is also doomed.

The question remains:
And won't the power tool Prigogine emancipate himself from those who want to use him and start his game of thrones?


Game Changer

A week ago, I talked to a close person about Ukraine. I was worried that the West did not provided Ukraine with combat aircraft and long-range missiles, which slows down the pace and raises the cost of a counteroffensive.
Experts say the West is arming Ukraine for the past war, not for the present war.

This close person answered my worries like this:
- The offensive of Ukraine is slow, because they are waiting for something. Something significant, like Game Changer.
- What?
- Wait ten days.

Today I thought: Is this not Prigogine's rebellion? After all, it can escalate into a Civil War!



The rashist barbarism in Kakhovka dealt Ukraine, Europe, the West, the Democratic world and all of us who are pro-Ukraine very heavy blows – at least four, each heavier than the other.

The first blow is the very disaster that the rashist atrocity has caused. This disaster has and will have enormous damages and hard-to-overcome consequences – ecological, social, economic, financial, etc. for years to come. It is not for nothing that the Geneva Conventions forbid encroachments on similar dam-type objects. The destruction of such an object is equivalent in terms of the damage it causes to the use of a weapon of mass destruction.

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