Not long ago, my conservative estimates that North Korea is sending 5,000 soldiers and officers to fight on the side of the rashists against Ukraine were met with irony by my Facebook friends.
Then various media outlets were talking about 10,000, now even intelligence services are citing the figure of 12,000.
So they could be even 15,000.
How is it possible that not only my Facebook friends — forgivable for them — but also Western experts — unforgivable for them — think and write that North Korea will not send cheap and numerous cannon fodder to the battlefields in Ukraine?
This is possible for at least two reasons.
The first reason is a strong emotional and cognitive, i.e. related to knowledge, need to accept what is desired as reality - we want something to (not) happen, and we believe that it will (not) happen. We see only what we like, and ignore the rest.
The second reason is that a huge part, almost 90% of our instincts and feelings, our analytical abilities and capabilities to act, are reactive, aimed at reacting.
That's how we are, humans...
When the leaves on the tree were shaking, our reaction was: Run, dude, run!
If we started to analyze whether the leaves of the tree were shaking because of the wind or because of a saber-toothed tiger, then the saber-toothed tiger's dinner would most often be guaranteed.
Yes, but in the modern Risk Society it is wrong, even fatal and at least (idiotic) stuppid to act only and only by reacting!
-- Today, reaction is the last behavior we can and should rely on.
In reaction, our behavior and approach to troubles are reactive. We act when trouble occurs.
We can say that we are reacting and being reactive to what happened YESTERDAY.
-- It is better to be active and preventive, i.e. to intensively and multidirectionally observe and analyze the process.
In prevention, our behavior and approach to troubles are active.
We act when trouble is minor, to prevent it from turning into a major disaster.
We can say that we are proactive and preventive to what is happening TODAY.
-- It is even better to be proactive, i.e. to anticipate events, to be one step ahead of them, to have an early warning system for possible troubles.
We act before trouble happens, because if it happens even as a small trouble, it can very quickly become a major disaster.
We can say that we need to increasingly develop our early warning capabilities and be proactive about what will happen TOMORROW.
--- And the best thing is to strive to FORECAST, and this will allow us - with the right approach and an accurate system of criteria for assessing probable scenarios - to PREDICT what can happen to us.
We act even before the conditions that contribute to the emergence of disaster arise, and so that there is not even the slightest possibility of this disaster occurring.
We can say that we need to increasingly build up our capabilities for forecasting so that we should foresight and take measures to what may happen THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW.
We see how far reactive behavior is from the needs of today's Risk Society.
The triumphalism of the End of History has greatly affected the West - its intelligence services, its think tanks, its expert community and expertise, its education in the field of foreign policy, defense and security. Their quality has significantly declined.
Just look at the monographs that are being published — massively suffering from geostrategic myopia, which is already turning into geopolitical night blindness.
The worst thing is that in countries like ours, up to now, and like Ukraine until 2014 (if not until 2022), these monographs, this expertise, this geopolitical vision, this geostrategizing are accepted as the ultimate Truth. As indisputable mantras and dogmas, conveyed to us by indisputable oracles and prophets.
The West has become myopic in an increasingly complex security environment, and also sees what it wants to see, therefore it stumbles over what it does not want to see.
The West is constantly running after events, reacting, behaving reactively. It is always having heated debates about what happened YESTERDAY and what it should have done YESTERDAY.
An example is allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles against military and military-logistics facilities on the territory of the Russians.
This decision should have been made YESTERDAY, but it will not be made TOMORROW either.
Proactive behavior is not in fashion in the West, reactive behavior, reaction reigns and, I would say, triumphs there.
And now - just now the West suddenly began to discuss the possibility of sending North Korean cannon fodder to the battlefields of Ukraine. But this has already happened - YESTERDAY.
Yes, the West runs after events, it develops strategies from the point of view of YESTERDAY and has become so addicted to this YESTERDAY that it believes that it can live as usual. Like YESTERDAY...
So some of my Facebook friends can be forgiven for the irony that I was talking about sending North Korean hordes to help the rashist gangs.
The West with all its intelligence agencies, centers, circles, squares and pentagons slept through this and is even still arguing whether it is possible - about North Koreans in Ukraine, so what is left for these Facebook friends to do.
My reproach to some of my Facebook friends is different, or rather not a reproach, but rather advice:
Stop seeing the West by wishful thinking - as something great, infallible, holy and indestructible, unbreakable and invincible, possessing a monopoly on the Ultimate Truth!
The West TODAY is not what you want it to be.
The West TODAY is retreating, which may turn into a panic flight from global commitments.
The West is us. We must help each other, helping the West become what we want it to be.
So that the West can become the Leader again, to protect Democracy, Peace, Human Civilization, the Euro-Atlantic Community and even itself...
And those who think that the Russian ushanka is better than the Western baseball cap, let them remember what happened to such fools (and pure idiots) over the centuries.
And let them not get away with this naivety (and pure historical stupidity).
They will not get away with it, because History will decide their Fate. And its Court is merciless, uncompromising, inexorable and does not allow appeals against the sentences passed on them.
10/21/2024