● TREND 6. Establishment of an ultra-liberal geo-economic model
  The globally established economic model is based on the absolutization of the market and private property, private initiative and private interests; on the freedom and the pursuit of economic growth and competition; on the complete liberalization of the economy and the withdrawal of the state from it; on trade free from restrictions and borders; on the unimpeded and rapid movement of capital. Transnational capital is gaining power on a planetary scale and seeks to influence the world agenda.
  We will look at some of the destructive effects of the ultra-liberal geo-economic model, but the objectivity and usefulness of the analysis require that this model be placed in a wider context – in the context of the responsibility of the countries of the Euro-Atlantic community to global security and the future of the world. The importance of the topic follows from the critical moment in the development of human civilization and the crossroads at which it is located - a strategically difficult to manage situation in which the responsibility of the West grows enormously and has dimensions of an epochal, apocalyptic challenge..
  The first two decades of the 21st century prove that the West (USA and Western Europe) fails to cope with the mission of a global leader when the world enters the Risk Society, the Third Wave of Security – the Wave of risk, in the time of Uncertainty, Heterogeneity, Instability, Insecurity. This apparent failure is related to the crisis of the West's undisputed advantages: geopolitical status, economic model, universal values and strategic priorities.
  
  ⁕ The geopolitical status of the West until a few years ago was considered natural and self-sustaining. A little while ago, the main trend of establishing a unipolar geopolitical model with a single superpower – the USA – was discussed. In its essence, it was a model of global superiority of the West, of the USA and Western Europe, who committed themselves with all their political, economic and military power, as well as with all their structures, to bear the responsibility for the stabilization and for the effective governance of the world. This status of the West was perceived by the rest of the countries with understanding or with resignation as an inevitable reality, as the least evil, but also because of the lack of a realistic alternative. Gradually, it became abundantly clear that the US understood its unique position not as global leadership, but as global dominance.
  Global leadership combines US national interests with its international responsibilities, and global dominance places US national interests above those international responsibilities. The pinnacle of this uncertainty-reproducing US behavior was the neoconservative George W. Bush administration's long-term unpromising pre-emptive war strategy. Western European countries, bereft of visionary leaders and complacent about the benefits and advantages offered by this unique geopolitical status – being part of the global governing council without, however, paying for the damages and liabilities of bearing responsibility for the decisions made – turned their backs to the vocation to realize their civilizing mission and to carry their duty of moral correction. This in no small measure eroded the trust of other countries in the West, and not only in the USA, but also in Western Europe, which began to lose its more acceptable and more social image. The excessive dominance of the West has come to be perceived – fairly or not – as inefficient, immoral and unjust
  
  ⁕ The economic model of the West (let`s remind – maximum private property, private initiative, private interests; maximum market, competition, freedom, liberalization of the economy, withdrawal of the state from it) triumphed globally after the end of the competitive socialist economic „model“ (maximum state ownership, centralized planned economy and command-administrative intervention of the state in absolutely every public activity, priority of common interests over private ones).
  This model, in its highly effective and free of negative influences form, is inherent only to Western liberal and market democracies, where four important conditions are present:
  1. Laws, which regulate its effective functioning;
  2. Institutions, which ensure compliance with these laws;
  3. A standard of living, which minimizes radical disagreements with the model and consolidates society and citizens for its preservation and development;
  4. Public culture, which forms skills and abilities to act in the conditions and risks of a highly competitive market environment.
  The liberal economic model triumphed globally without much resistance (was it possible after the logical end of its socialist competitor?) and already as an ultra-liberal geo-economic model imposed practically mandatory norms, rules, standards and practices of economic activity. The problem, however, is that such an ultra-liberal geo-economic model has a number of very serious weaknesses and defects:
  ♦ It eats up the non-renewable and slowly renewable resources of the Earth (oil, gas, soils, wood, metals, water, oxygen) and therefore in the long term it cannot be sustainably maintained, and in the foreseeable future it may even rapidly collapse.
  ♦ It irreversibly destroys the environment and leads to climate changes that inexorably confront our planet with the Hamlet question – To be or not to be?
  ♦ It deepens the current structural and systemic contradictions between the five types of materially (but also – and increasingly – mentally and morally) different states: overdeveloped, developed, developing, underdeveloped and degenerating.
  ♦ It is not universal, symmetrical, inclusive, equal, but elitist, asymmetrical, exclusive, discriminating. It benefits the so-called „golden billion“ people, 15% of humanity, who have 85% of the world's GDP, and the other 85% of humanity, for whom 15% of the world's GDP remains, are being harmed.
  The ultra-liberal model is accompanied by „corrosive financialization that has turned the economy into a giant casino... financialization refers to the dominance of the financial sector in the global economy and the tendency for accumulated profits (and leverage) to flow into real estate and other speculative investment“ [33].
  These huge and ab-normal weaknesses (we can without any exaggeration call them that) of the dominant economic model create in the eyes of peoples of different civilizations, cultures and religions an image of the West as almost a demon who wants to drag everyone into the abyss which, according to them, only he deserves. They believe that for them this model assigns the lot of a second, even third quality population. The West is already enjoying the fruits of the Third Millennium, and much of the world is suffering from the infirmities of the Middle Ages. The family of the poor, of the sick in body and spirit, of those leading a miserable existence, of those deprived of chance and purpose, not only does not diminish, but grows and takes on threatening proportions. The wronged think that their social disaster will be their inevitable fate for a long time, and this radicalizes them, it fills them with a desire for revenge, for solutions that deny the current order. And first comes their desire to „share“ their woes with the opulent world, to hold it responsible for them. Colossal human waves are sweeping over the Western Paradise, and unless positive solutions to human misfortunes are found, they may turn this paradise into hell.
  
  ⁕ The universal values of the West have for decades been an amazing strategic resource that, like a magnet, has attracted vast communities of people boldly and inspiredly thirsting for freedom, democracy and human rights. For better or worse, practically all principles, concepts, legal norms, perceived nowadays as global, are based on the heritage of European (and today Western, Euro-Atlantic) civilization: Ancient Greek philosophy, Roman law, Renaissance humanism, Ideas about democracy, human rights and freedoms. As a bearer of these values, the West was able, for example, in the 1980s and 1990s to mobilize exceptional support among the peoples of Central and Eastern Europe in their drive to put an end to socialist totalitarianism. In quite a few other countries, young people wrote on their posters and chanted vivid demands for the establishment of a number of Western values.
  However, the world began to look more and more critically at what the West was doing. It was becoming clear that Western values seemed to be at odds with deeds. The words turned out to be often a shiny packaging of violation of international law and commitments, of hypocritical political correctness, of selfishness. And of double standards.
  That is why, however crooked, the mirror that critics of the West hold up to its face is a mirror. If the West does not like the image in this mirror, then the reason is not only in the mirror, but also in the West itself. Unfortunately, instead of asserting the attractiveness of its values, instead of using these values to forge coalitions in support of its ideals, values and priorities, the West chooses in a number of cases to act unilaterally and forcefully, to push its interests, to prove its right and to impose its will.
  
  ⁕ The strategic priorities of the West were a vector setting the direction of global development; Western goals shaped world strategic planning; discussions in the West set the tone for the world debate; Western creativity drove world innovation; and Western art guided world cultural ideas and trends.
  And this was so until the leader of the West, the USA, pushed the world into the so-called Global War on Terror. Mankind has been forced to contemplate in stress and shock how the current agenda of our civilization is being superseded, how precious time and considerable resources are being wasted instead of attacking the key risks that could plunge the world into chaos and anarchy if not given adequate, quick and efficient response. With this, the credit of trust in the West as a civilizational leader has largely begun to run out. A number of countries, even democracies among them, were gripped by the suspicion that the cockpit of the global liner seemed to have an insufficiently responsible and sufficiently inadequate crew. And this gave rise to the desire not only to change the course and to change the way the liner is managed, but also to change its crew.
  Terrorism should not be defined as the biggest, much less the only significant problem of humanity. It should not be analyzed in isolation from the other challenges facing the world today. It can be seen not only as a cause of the deteriorating governability of the world and escalating global chaos, but also as a consequence of systemic, structural and value problems, of deepening symmetrical and asymmetrical challenges. It is necessary to attack first of all the essential causes of the crisis, of the violence and anger on a global and regional level, and not to wage a war against terror by itself, detached from the real threats. The problems facing our planet are common. They require common solutions based on common approaches that unite peoples of different cultures, religions and regions, rather than dividing and pitting them against each other. We must build bridges that connect us and bring us together, not barricades that divide us and confront us.
  
  For historical reasons and because of its political, military and economic power, the West plays a leading role on the world stage as a geo-strategic, geo-political, geo-economic and geo-energy factor. It has a historical and civilizational mission, it bears irrevocable and indivisible responsibility for the survival and development, for the peace and security of our Planet. This requires him to have long-term wisdom, visionary thinking and strategic leadership. Only they can enable it to effect a smooth, manageable transformation of the current unipolar geopolitical and ultra-liberal geo-economic model to a different, multi-polar and pluralistic geo-political and alternative socio-liberal geo-economic model, better and more concerned with the environment, planetary resources and human dignity and the future of the world.
  Let this loading of the West with mission and responsibility not sound too exaggerated. Yes, it is true, common problems require common approaches and common solutions, but IT IS THE WEST, which, to the greatest extent, incomparably greater than the contribution and capabilities of others, holds the key to stopping this landslide of humanity towards the abyss – because today's geopolitical and geoeconomic construction of the world is such that the Great Game is being played on the field and according to the rules of the West, and on this field and under these rules the West cannot be defeated. On the field of the West and under the rules of the West, it is the West that is the best player. And the West does not just play better than others, but also increases its advantage over them. But the fact that the West is in such a unique situation and that it has such an unprecedented role does not give it more rights, but gives it more responsibilities, gives it a mission and imputes to it a duty: to lead humanity to better days.
  The leaders of the West must find the political courage to face their peoples and declare that the West has no moral right to rule the world only as it sees fit, and that the West has a moral duty to lead the world along difficult and thorny paths, that will allow us to bring under at least relative control and make at least partially manageable the risks that are inexorably and unpreventably beginning to materialize. If the West does not find such leaders, if Western politicians continue to lead the West (and the whole world) down the suicidal path they have been on just because they are inferior and smaller than the challenges and lack the courage and political will, then the future of our civilization looks too pessimistic.
  
  Explanation:
  Neoconservatism – the ideology of some of the conservative politicians in the USA, who are in favor of using the country's economic and military power to defeat hostile regimes, to establish democracy in authoritarian and totalitarian states.
  George W. Bush (1946) – the 43rd President of the United States from 2001 to 2009.
  Pre-emptive war – a war that prevents the threat of war from the adversary from occurring; preventive war is conducted to prevent the emerging threat from becoming (extremely) large.
  Demon – a general name for supernatural beings, demigods or spirits occupying an intermediate position between gods and humans.
  Liner – means of transport, as a rule passenger, used to carry out transports according to an announced schedule („stands, is on the line“). In this case, a large plane.
  
  ● TREND 7. Growing influence of organized crime and terrorism and threat of their becoming a geostrategic factor
  We have already pointed out the threat of the symbiosis and overlap of organized crime and terrorism and the increasing emergence of their intertwining and Earth-entangling network structure, OCTopus-N, which should by no means be underestimated.
  
  There is a conceptual insufficiency, a fog, a fuzziness, even a crisis, in understanding what is actually happening globally after the world has fallen into the grip of violence through terrorist attacks. Different experts have different versions on the question of who is behind the attacks in the last twenty years in many Western countries (USA, Great Britain, Spain, France); what are actually the ultimate goals of terrorists.
  Meanwhile, the Islamic State, IS (ISIL) has emerged on the world stage. A sharp disagreement arose between the experts: to what extent IS is a cause and to what extent it is a consequence of global and regional processes; whether IS is a permanent phenomenon or will gradually, like al-Qaeda, recede into the background, but then what might be expected to emerge after IS in this continuous and increasingly sinister transformation of Islamist terrorism; whether IS is only a terrorist organization or is it also a sadistic, pseudo-religiously motivated metastases of the organized crime; what exactly is the main thing today – the radicalization of Islamism or the Islamization of radicalism?
  If the dividing furrow, the confrontation, the hatred in the sick consciousness of the terrorists runs along the line USA – Rest [of the world], i.e. the USA as the lonely superpower according to Samuel Huntington [34], then the prospects for the world, Europe and Bulgaria will be to somewhat degree related to the „widening of the Atlantic Ocean“ discussed here later by us. However, if it runs along the line West vs. Rest [of the world], again according to Huntington [35], then these perspectives will be of a completely different type and the U.S. and Europe will be on one side of the barricade, and they must come together again, and much more strongly, even if they have different, even incompatible, strategic interests in other spheres. Because the supreme task of terrorism in this case turns out to be attacking the West, to sow chaos, anarchy, fear, violence; to stop modernization.
  Terrorist networks grow very quickly, they include all kinds of people dissatisfied with the world and the status quo, with their failures, with their failed responses to challenges, with their inability to catch up with the world and their reluctance to change their thinking. And isn't this a question of some kind of planetary disagreement, of a psychological catastrophe of different types of communities and people who do not believe, do not accept or lose from what is happening?
  Because the other versions are more startling! Like that terrorism is a collision of two types of powerful capital. One type is the capital of the 20th century, accumulated until the changes in 1989, reactionary, wanting to preserve the status quo, wanting stability and living off its interest, seeking the minimum but guaranteed profit, behaving conservatively, as a rentier. The other type is the capital of the XXI century, accumulated after 1989, much more dynamic, revolutionary, risk-loving, seeking the maximum profit, which is possible with a lot of dynamics, chaos, with the collapse and lack of institutions, the collapse and lack of rules.
  But there are grounds for weaving webs, for rebellion. And the cores of various terrorist groups supply know-how and martyrs (kamikaze-terrorists). The Italian historian Giovanni De Luna (1943) spoke of people as bombs, turning the power of the powerless into the powerlessness of the powerful [36]. What a metaphor for suicide terrorists! They do not have the attitude of killing themselves, of being instruments of revenge, but are filled with the thoughts of carrying out a military operation; they are subject to the culture of death, to the philosophy of the body whose death turns the victim into the executioner. How to restrain the martyr, exalted by the consciousness that his body is a weapon in which the fate of many people is locked and he can exercise the last power over them, one single time – before he dies?!
  Until recently, organized crime and terrorism were considered separately and were even opposed to each other. Still in scientific theory, in expert assessments, in practical counteraction programs, the increasingly blurred distinction between terrorism and organized crime continues to be held – that terrorism uses violence for political purposes, and organized crime uses violence for economic purposes. But the analyzes of leading scientists and experts are appearing more and more often, which talk about the intertwining of the networks of organized crime and terrorism. However, this does not mean that we should hastily equate these two very serious criminal activities, which inject more and more instability into the development of the world, the continents, the regions, and individual countries.
  
  ▪ As far as organized crime is concerned, it probably benefited to the greatest extent from the extraordinary cumulative effect of the process of globalization and the fall of the Berlin Wall (the European catastrophic event „9/11“, i.e. 09.11.1989, unlike the American catastrophic event „9/11“, i.e. 11.09.2001, when the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York collapsed). Organized crime was best prepared for the coming time of great insecurity and high risk, as it had already developed network structures, and this made it particularly adequate in the conditions of an increasingly networked world, networked leading institutions and networked major challenges. More and more often, organized crime also becomes a tool for geopolitical and geoeconomic competition – in the promotion of energy projects, in securing access to markets, in the psychological (and not only) impact on some politicians, i.e. by using its coping skills in a high-risk environment (for example, the Russian and rather Russian-speaking mafia).
  Particularly susceptible and favorable for the spread of organized crime are countries such as Bulgaria, which are in a never-ending Transition and more precisely in a long wave of systemic destructuring and initially not accumulation, but redistribution of capital in order to move from its over-concentration as state ownership and control – to its over-concentration in the hands of a very narrow stratum of „oligarchs“.
  Both in developed countries and in Bulgaria, part of organized crime is located mainly in the „gray“ (the gray economy – a mix between legal and illegal activities). It is organized crime – both because it is highly organized and because much of its activity is criminal, never mind that the rest of its activity is legal.
  At the same time, there are differences between developed countries and Bulgaria, and they are (at least) two:
  ‣ First, in developed countries, gray organized crime mainly takes funds from the „black“ (the black, entirely criminal economy) and pours them into the „white“ (the legal economy): sports, culture, education, health, science, etc., thereby „urges“ them to work for the living standard of the state and society. While in Bulgaria, gray organized crime takes money from the „white“ (the legal economy) and pours it into the „black“ (the black, entirely criminal economy), thereby draining huge resources from the state and society and transferring them through criminal activities into private hands.
  ‣ Second, in developed countries, gray organized crime constantly negotiates with the political elite and follows the rules set by this elite, in order to have order and stability in society. While in Bulgaria, gray organized crime directly guides and manages the political elite, works with it, sets its agenda and determines what laws to adopt, what political, economic and financial decisions to make, so that it benefits from them. In other words, in developed countries gray organized crime is something in the middle between service personnel of the oligarchy and the political elite and a mediator in their relations. While in Bulgaria, a large part of the bosses of gray organized crime and the oligarchs are practically the same.
  
  ▪ Terrorism also benefited from the sharp change in the world after 1989. Moreover, it was drawn into „razborki“ („showdown“) between leading geopolitical interests. Of great destructive potential is its use of religious motivation. And since terrorism is an expensive, resource-intensive enterprise, it needs the support of organized crime. There are also easy-to-understand reasons for the inverse relationship between organized crime and terrorism: strategic decision-making shifts to the highest political levels; the lobbying (overt or poorly disguised) of senior politicians for economic, financial and energy projects makes them the target of racketeering and blackmail by organized crime, which does not shy away from seeking the services of terrorist groups specializing in assassinations and attacks against politicians.
  
  The networks of organized crime and terrorism are cobwebs: flexible and mutating, highly adaptable cores and seeds of the type of sects and secret brotherhoods; quickly learning new communication and information technologies, mastering the manipulation of individuals and human masses. They become a state without a territory or a territory without a state; they are resourced by spreading out at different levels in more and more countries; they „write“ the loud headlines in the media and direct the cameras where, what and how to cover; they are inventive in their violence, they have a monopoly over time and space in which they operate; they flexibly change the goals, methods, subjects and objects of influence.
  
  Explanation:
  Symbiosis – coexistence of two or more organisms, from which they have a one-sided or mutual benefit.
  Islamic State – IS, formerly ISIS – Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, a terrorist jihadist group.
  The Levant – an approximate historical geographical term referring to a large area in the eastern Mediterranean.
  Jihad – zeal in the path to Allah. It is associated with armed struggle, but it is a much broader concept. It is fighting one's spiritual or social vices (lying, cheating, debauchery), eliminating social injustice, zealous in spreading Islam, waging war with aggressors, punishing criminals and wrongdoers.
  Al Qaeda – one of the largest and most radical international terrorist organizations, professing Islam, was established in 1988. After the withdrawal of the Soviet Union's troops from Afghanistan, it directed its fight against the United States and the Western world.
  Reactionary – backward, stunting, obscurantist, anti-human.
  Rentier – a person whose main income comes from capital, securities and real estate.
  Shaheed – in Islam, it is used as „martyr in the name of the faith“ and refers to those believers who accepted martyrdom, fighting against the enemies of the Muslim (true) faith and defending their homeland, honor, family. Nowadays, it is increasingly about Islamist terrorists committing suicide terrorist acts.
  Kamikaze – during the Second World War, this was the name given to the Japanese suicide pilots used as a lethal means of combat against the US Navy.
  „Razborki“ – in the language of the Russian criminal world – clarifying relations, resolving problems and settling conflicts between gangs and/or their bosses.
  
  ● TREND 8. Increasingly intensive and increasingly widespread penetration of new communication, information, industrial, genetic and space technologies and Artificial Intelligence in all spheres of activity of the state, society and man – in politics, economy, social processes and security
  The American philosopher Alvin Toffler (1928 – 2016) wrote many years ago, in 1980, about the advent of the Third Wave, i.e. of the Wave of the Information Society [37], coming after the other two Waves that traced the path of humanity – the Agrarian Wave and the Industrial Wave, respectively the Wave of the Agrarian Society and the Wave of the Industrial Society. Each of these three waves – Agrarian, Industrial and Informational – is associated with its main source of goods – respectively Earth, Energy and Information; each has its own symbol – the Hoe, the Conveyor and the Computer.
  It is not simply about three types of production relations (agriculture, industry and communications), but about three type of different ways of interpersonal communication, of waging war and creating cultural values; about three types of different technologies and institutions; about three types of normative regulations; in general – about three types of different social systems, which Alvin Toffler calls „civilizations“. With the exception of the most backward, all three „civilizations“ are present in varying proportions in every country today, finding themselves both in dynamic cooperation and also in competition and conflict with each other.
  According to Toffler, in his technological model (scenario) of development, the space of the information society will expand, and the integrative informational and intellectual core of this expanding space will be the United States. The main conflicts in tomorrow's world will be between the Industrial Society (i.e. the Second Wave Society) and the Information Society (i.e. the Third Wave Society). Revolutionary changes will occur in the means and ways of managing and controlling social processes, as well as in the means and ways of waging war. Zones of the Agrarian Society (of the First Wave) will arise and enormous efforts will be required to painstakingly reintegrate them. That is why countries that miss the bullet train leading to the Information Society will remain unmodernized, „information poor men“, wallowing in de-intellectualization, communication and computer illiteracy.
  Analyzing the different aspects of the information age, we have to agree with the scientists warning about the emergence of a two-class information society, consisting of the OFFLINE proletariat and the ONLINE elite. The offline proletariat is cut off from information, from know-how, from a better future. These people cannot expect a way out of the contradictions or the appearance of new (for them) perspectives. In this situation, the „information poor men“ from all countries and strata are thrown at the mercy of fate, forced to fend for themselves, to save themselves as they see fit: „Due to the significant and ever increasing number of losers, the slogan of the new resistance movement should be: „Offline proletarians of all countries, unite!“ [38].
  Today, according to Bulgarian security scholar Velichka Milina (1956), we are „living through a communications revolution“. She believes that the name „information society“ does not fully reflect the specifics of the present and we should talk about „communication society“, that „new communication technologies are not aimed at increasing the volume of available information, but at developing innovative and effective forms of mass communications and exchange of information between the participants in the communication. The phenomenon „communication“ increasingly comes to the fore and acquires the status of a main explanatory principle of the social sciences“ [39]. That is why the communication and information revolution raises the issue of information security in all its leading aspects (including cyber security). This revolution exponentially increases the role of the quantity and quality of information for the very lasting functioning of society and affects the politics and economy of countries.
  Velichka Milina agrees with the American sociologist Scott Lash (1945), who writes that:
   „Communications are increasingly via non-linear and discontinuous 'ports' – through airports, 'teleports' of mobile phones, modem ports, through Internet portals... The network society is a society of flows, a society of global communications. Flows are of many things, prominent among them is information. But all flows are also flows of communication. Marx's manufactoring society was based on the machines that transform nature. Today's machines are less concerned about the transformation of nature, or even the transformation of culture (information), but about the transmission of culture (communications). The society of flows, the network society, is less an information society than a communication society“ [40].
  
  We need to go beyond the communication and information dimension of the (high) technological revolution that the world is experiencing. No less amazing are the scientific and practical breakthroughs in industry, gene research, risk management, which outer space hides. Of course, everything is much more connected and more complex, it can hardly be divided into parts: this refers to communications; this – to the information; this – to the industry; this to genome studies; and this – to open space. Here we are talking about mutual interweaving of the obtained results, synthesis of achievements in each of these areas, and mutual stimulation of research.
  We are entering the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The Swiss-German economist Klaus Schwab (1938) systematized the four industrial revolutions as follows:
  „The first industrial revolution spanned from about 1760 to around 1840. Triggered by the construction of railroads and the invention of the steam engine, it ushered in mechanical production.
  The second industrial revolution, which started in the late 19th century and into the early 20th century, made mass production possible, fostered by the advent of electricity and the assembly line.
  The third industrial revolution began in the 1960s. It is usually called the computer or digital revolution because it was catalysed by the development of semiconductors, mainframe computing (1960s), personal computing (1970s and 80s) and the internet (1990s).
  The fourth industrial revolution… began at the turn of this century and builds on the digital revolution. It is characterized by a much more ubiquitous and mobile internet, by smaller and more powerful sensors that have become cheaper, and by artificial intelligence and machine learning. Digital technologies that have computer hardware, software and networks at their core are not new, but in a break with the third industrial revolution, they are becoming more sophisticated and integrated and are, as a result, transforming societies and the global economy… The fourth industrial revolution, however, is not only about smart and connected machines and systems. Its scope is much wider. Occurring simultaneously are waves of further breakthroughs in areas ranging from gene sequencing to nanotechnology, from renewables to quantum computing. It is the fusion of these technologies and their interaction across the physical, digital and biological domains that make the fourth industrial revolution fundamentally different from previous revolutions“ [41].
  A critical (catastrophic?!) intersection of radical changes in high technology is the Artificial Intelligence. Scientists and futurists talk about its higher form Superintelligence as a recent reality and outline the risks we will face if it gets out of our control and even begins to impose its desired behavior on us [42]. And as the Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari (1976) writes:
  „Some experts and thinkers ... warn that humankind is unlikely to suffer this degradation because, once artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, it might exterminate humankind. The AI is likely to do so either for fear that humankind would turn against it and try to pull its plug, or in pursuit of some unfahomable goal of its own. For it would be extremely his could happen because it would be extremely difficult for humans to control the motivation of a system smarter than themselves. Ever preprogramming the system with seemigly benign goals might backfire horribly. One popular scenario imagines a corporation designing the first artificial super-intelligence, and giving it an innoncent test such as calculating pi. Before anyone realises what is happening, the AI takes over the planet, eliminates the human race, launches a conwuest campaign to the ends of the galaxy, and transforms the entire known universe into a giant super-computer that for billions upon billions of years calculates pi ever more accurately. After all, this is the divine mission its Creator gave it“ [43].
  
  The breakthrough in gene research is staggering. Indian-American oncologist Siddhartha Mukherjee (1979) wrote:
  „Two technologies transform genetics in the 1970s: gene sequencing and gene cloning - the 'reading' and 'writing' of genes (the phrase gene cloning encompaces the gamut of techniques used to extract genes from organisms, manipulate them in test tubes, create gene hybrids, and produce millions of copies of such hybrids in living cells)“ [44].
  Genetic research has shockingly significant positive results for humanity – in the counteraction of diseases considered until recently as incurable, for the relief of a number of physical and mental sufferings. But at the same time, it can lead to a deepening of the social division in society, inasmuch as the opportunities they create can only be taken advantage of by those who are able to cope with the high, still prohibitive cost of these studies and in fulfilling their prescriptions.. The manipulations that take place at the level of genes are a direct intervention, so to speak, in the sphere of responsibility of God – through this intervention the very nature of things and man is changed. Those who can pay the costs for it will not be many, and in that case only for them, or at least mainly for them, the chances will be available for them to change and replace their organs, to suppress and remove from their organisms dangerous, difficult to treat, and for the huge mass of people, incurable diseases, to „order“ children with certain qualities and abilities, through which they become not only additionally benefited, thanks to the very high material status of their parents, but also even more adaptable to the environment and able to succeed in it.
  In addition to a number of serious, as of today unfathomable and unimaginable social risks, this increasing speed and depth of activity hides other – moral, ethical risks that we are obliged to predict and guess about tomorrow's „post-genetic“ world. Or to quote Siddharth Mukherjee excitedly once more:
  „[Some] aspects of this world seem distinctly and even repulsively alien. It is a world inhabited by 'previvors' and 'post-humans' – men and women who have been screened for genetic vulnerabilities or created with altered genetic propensities. Illness might progressively vanish but so might identity. Grief might be diminished but so might tenderness. Traumas might be erased, but so might history. Mutants would be eliminated but so would human variation“ [45].
  For this unique and alarming trend, we have only to quote Yuval Noah Harari again:
  „Peer-to-peer blockchain networks and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin might completely revamp the monetary system, so that radical tax reforms will be inevitable. For example, it might become impossible or irrelevant to tax dollars, because most transactions will not involve a clear-cut exchange of national currency, or any currency at all. Governments might therefore need to invent entirely new taxes – perhaps a tax on information (which will be both the most important asset in the economy, and the only thing exchanged in numerous transactions). Will the political system manage to deal with the crisis before it runs out of money?... Perhaps in the twenty-first century populist revolts will be staged not against an economic elite that exploits people, but against an economic elite that does not need them any more. This may well be a losing battle. It is much harder to struggle against irrelevance than against exploitation... When the biotech revolution merges with the infotech revolution, it will produce Big Data algorithms that can monitor and understand my feelings much better than I can, and then authority will probably shift from humans to computers. My illusion of free will is likely to disintegrate as I daily encounter institutions, corporations and government agencies that understand and manipulate what was hitherto my inaccessible inner realm“ [46].
  
  While some countries (Russia) and non-state entities (IS) cannot catch up with the future of humanity, and rather its leading squad, the West, and therefore want to destroy this high-tech future of stunning and unique scientific achievements and try in vain to reverse the vector of civilizational development, in the West scientific research centers achieve incredible, amazing breakthroughs not only in information and communication, industrial and genetic technologies, but also in space technologies. As said, they are facing (for the first time in human history) the risks that outer space can bring us. Qualitatively new knowledge has been accumulated here, and remarkable breakthroughs are expected in the near future. Let's take the technologies being developed for the early detection, study of the movement and preventive action (deflection or destruction) of various space bodies - asteroids, comets and meteorites - so that they do not cause damage to our planet.
  
  Explanation:
  Artificial intelligence – intelligence demonstrated by computers, in contrast to the natural intelligence of humans and animals. The science of the concepts that enable computers to perform tasks that can be considered intelligent.
  Exponential growth – this, simply put, is very rapid growth.
  Port – in computer hardware, this is the connection point (physical or logical) of the computer to other computers or peripheral devices.
  Web portal – a website that serves as an information center, presents information from different sources in a unified way. In addition to the standard search engine, portals offer services such as e-mail, news, information, database and entertainment.
  Transmission – a device of shafts and mechanisms for transmitting rotational movements from an engine to an energy user; transmission of power from an engine to a separate machine.
  Genome – the entire set of hereditary information necessary to build and maintain the organism; it is contained in the body's cell.
  Mainframe computer – a high-performance computer with a significant amount of operational and external memory, designed for centralized organization and storage of large volumes of data and for intensive calculations.
  Sequence, Genomic sequencing – determination of the complete DNA sequence of the human genome. By this process, the hereditary information of the person is counted.   DNA – a macromolecule, one of the three main, along with RNA (ribonucleic acid) and proteins, contained in living organisms. DNA carries the genetic instructions for the biological development of all cellular life forms and of many viruses.
  DNA cloning (gene cloning) – separating a given sequence of DNA and obtaining a number of copies of it.
  Peering – an agreement between Internet operators to exchange traffic between their networks;
  Block chain or blockchain – a method of storing information in a computer network, representing a growing list of computer records, called „blocks“, connected to each other and coded cryptographically.
  Cryptography – studies the principles, means and methods of data transformation.
  Cryptocurrency – means of exchange based on blockchain technology and cryptography.
  Bitcoin – the first cryptocurrency (decentralized 2009).
  Asteroids („small planets“) – bodies of irregular shape and different sizes (from 100 m to 1000 km), which move in planet-like orbits around the Sun, mostly in the space between Mars and Jupiter.
  Comets – icy bodies with impurities of solid rock particles, with sizes on average of several kilometers. A large proportion of these appear to be in the outermost parts of the solar system.
  Meteorites – small bodies whose sizes are in very wide limits – from several thousandths of a millimeter to several tens of meters [47].
  
  In addition to these eight main trends, we will point out eight additional, concomitant trends – they are to one degree or another also decisive for contemporary development.
  
  ADDITIONAL GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS
  IN GLOBAL SECURITY
  
  ● TREND 9. Strategic and value, civilizational drift (distancing) of the USA and Europe in different directions (the so-called „widening of the Atlantic Ocean“)
  
  Explanation:
  Drift – slow displacement of the continents in a horizontal direction.
  
  During the decades of the Cold War, the United States and Europe (then Western Europe) were held tightly together by the clamp of the common threat of the USSR, communism, and the Warsaw Pact. With the fall of the Berlin Wall and the breaking of this holding clamp, the US and Europe found themselves without their ideological cohesion, and a basis for diverging strategic goals, ambitions and interests arose („widening of the Atlantic Ocean“).
  Let's take two granite blocks, for example in a Pyramid, joined by a powerful clamp. If this clamp is removed, they can remain for a long time as if they are held firmly together, and in concussions they somehow „remember“ that they are joined. But there is always a risk that they will start to move apart after another concussion – gradually or all of a sudden. Thus, the two granite blocks of the USA and (Western) Europe were firmly held by the Soviet threat for 45 years. After 1989, they held each other for a long time, as if they were still firmly joined; together they overcame the First War against Iraq (in early 1991), the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992 – 1995), the Kosovo War (1998 – 1999), the beginning of the war in Afghanistan (2001). But then came the Second Iraq War (2003) and it became clear that there were serious differences between them.
  The question for the US and Europe is whether this strategic drift (civilizational fault) in different directions will continue or whether a replacement will be found for the holding clamp of communism. At first, the undisputed No. 1 candidate for such a unique clamp was globalizing terrorism. But there was a significant nuance. If the USSR threatened Europe, the weaker partner, the younger sister in the „USA-Europe“ relationship, and it, Europe, pressed to the stronger partner, the big brother USA, then globalized terrorism threatened much more – the strong partner, the big brother USA. That is why the weaker partner, the younger sister Europe sought to distance itself from the older brother, as it turned out that the threat of globalizing terrorism is not at all perceived in the same way on both sides of the Atlantic. For the United States, it was an existential threat that could threaten the very existence of the country. But Europe does not have such an apocalyptic view of this threat. For Europe, the war that the US is waging on terror (Global War on Terror) was not the true solution to the problem of terrorism, or was only part of its solution, and therefore this war finally became part of the problem itself. The fundamental differences between the US and Europe regarding terrorism and its countermeasures have determined and continue to determine their different responses to each manifestation of this threat and to efforts to bring it under control and to minimize its destructive consequences.
  Relatively speaking, France had two choices: to participate in the war on terror, so that the Eiffel Tower would not be destroyed; or not to participate in the war on terror, so that the Eiffel Tower would not be destroyed. And France chose the second option, namely: „This is not our war, this is America's war; terrorism is fundamentally an asymmetric response to US imperial behavior, to the US-imposed geopolitical and geoeconomic model“.
  For terrorism to be the clamp that will firmly bind the US and Europe together, Europe must experience horrors similar to those of September 11, 2001. It must also begin to look around with suspicion and fear everywhere – in transportation, in places of culture, entertainment and sports; a battery with means of anti-missile protection should be stationed next to the Eiffel Tower, armored personnel carriers should be stationed in front of the Louvre, and on the roofs of the two buildings with the two chambers of the French Parliament – the Luxembourg Palace, where the Senate holds its sessions, and the Bourbon Palace, where the National Assembly holds its sessions meeting, there should be snipers armed to the teeth to keep a close watch. And only at first glance, life will go on as before, as if nothing special happened.
  
  Geopolitically and even more generally analyzed, terrorism at this moment does not seem to be the most serious challenge for the Euro-Atlantic relationship. It is extremely troubling that during his first term as President, Donald Trump planted a time-delayed mine under this relationship, and if he wins a second term, he may even fatally and irreparably rupture it. There has never been another American president who has been so destructively opposed to NATO and the EU and has so little respect for his European partners.
  Moreover, although Europe, the US and their transatlantic relationship are threatened to varying (at first glance) degrees by Russia's growing aggression on the international stage, objective analysis shows that Russia's actions, imperial ambitions and absolute disregard for international law on Putin, its ferocious and sinister drive to blow up the existing world order, is becoming (already has become!) a colossal and potentially fatal threat to the West that could lead to its Sunset. And this time, these aren't just wildly exaggerated rumors about this Sunset, but could turn out to be a completely realistic scenario. That is why this Russia, Putin's Russia, must become (and is even late to become!) the new clamp that will unite Europe and the USA, strengthen their transatlantic relationship and prevent the Third World War.
  
  ● TREND 10. Retreat of the Balkans to the periphery of world politics
  The Balkans are one of the most earthquake-prone areas in terms of all possible disputes and conflicts. This is due to a complex, explosive mixture of various reasons and prerequisites - historical, geopolitical, ethnic, religious, social, etc.
  Here are the most important characteristics of the region, determining its increased conflictness:
  1. State and ethnic borders do not coincide.
  2. Most countries in the region are multi-ethnic.
  3. After the end of the Cold War, the region lost its important geopolitical importance and moved to the periphery of the Great Politics.
  4. In the post-bipolar new world order, the various countries in the region have come from different political, military, economic and social systems, and there is a lack of a culture of coexistence and consolidation.
  5. The overburdened historical memory of the Balkans „bleeds from mutual enmities and suspicions“.
  6. The peoples of the region have often been victims of external influences – here the great powers have clashed here their interests and have tried too often to achieve them at the expense of the Balkans and at a price fully paid by the Balkan peoples.
  7. A radical change of the ethnic ratio is taking place in the region. One of the ethnicities – the Albanian – is growing at a very fast pace, and the leaders of this ethnic group are constantly escalating their political goals and synchronizing them with its demographic explosion.
  8. A radical change of the religious ratio is taking place in the region. The role of one of the global religions – Islam – is growing; this gives rise to fears among other religions about a possible Islamic arc and the advancement of Islam on the so-called Islamic islands and enclaves.
  9. Inadequate, lagging behind events, poorly financially secured, as a rule politically (politicized) motivated, often inconsistent with the real needs of the local peoples, initiatives of the major players (USA, European Union) for the region.
  10. The absence of traditions, attitudes and models, institutions, procedures and practices for the peaceful settlement of conflicts in the region. This necessitates their regulation outside the region, which internationalizes them and brings outside interests, influences and ambitions into them.
  
  Explanation:
  Enclave – part of the territory of a country, completely surrounded by the territory of another country; an area with one ethnic and/or religious population completely surrounded by another ethnic and/or religious population.
  
  Whether the peoples of our region like it or not, one can see how – anxiously beholding Russia's war in Ukraine, engaged in countering the Islamic State, engrossed in events in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria – the US, NATO and the EU are watching with far less attention to what is happening in the Balkans, and NATO is even transferring its responsibilities in the region to the EU. This requires a careful rethinking of Bulgarian foreign policy, its connection to real problems and vital priorities. There is often a feeling that Bulgarian foreign policy is overly geopoliticized and seems to be straining to solve problems of distant countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq at the expense of the region in which we live, losing sight of its own abilities, role and significance. And Bulgarian role is most important precisely in the unique strategic triangle, whose turbulent peaks are the Western Balkans, Transcaucasia and the Middle East. Bulgaria can generate security in the region, prove that European principles and norms for relations between countries, for human rights and democracy are applicable in it. This region is an integral part of Europe and Bulgaria's active role in its security is a significant contribution to the security of Europe. This is very important for Bulgaria because, even though Bulgaria is part of the West, NATO and the EU, it remains geographically and geopolitically in the Balkans.
  As a member of NATO and the EU, Bulgaria will bear greater responsibility for the processes in the region. And this region continues to generate risks for European security. Nothing has yet been permanently decided for the better future (or for future at all) of Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The problems are exacerbated by enormous social, ethnic and religious tensions and fragile democratic practices. The many unresolved disputes in bilateral relations, historical animosities and mutual mistrust bring a strong dose of unpredictability. Underdevelopment, foci of pre-modernity and failing democracy create a criminalized political and economic fabric that remains a breeding ground for terrorist and organized crime groups. In no case should one forget the genesis of some of the politicians in the region, nor their (until recently) ties to organized crime. It is hard to believe that people with a burdened criminal past will turn into sincere democrats working consistently for the normalization, Europeanization and modernization of the region.
  In the Balkans, two important principles of international law collide – for the right to self-determination and for the inviolability of borders. The task for the countries of the region, for NATO, the EU and the international community is to seek a balance between them in the interest of peace and security. The problems in the region will be treated with more European integration. The borders of the countries here are de jure or de facto European borders. If security risks and dangers penetrate the region, sooner or later they will find pores through which they will slide towards Europe. The borders of the region are not only a regional problem, but also a problem of NATO and the EU. NATO and the EU must invest in the security of these borders. The region has serious problems, the treatment of which can be supported by countries outside it, by NATO and the EU, but it will not happen without regional cooperation and common will. It is no longer possible to say „let NATO or the EU intervene“. With the membership of countries in the region to NATO and the EU, THEY ARE NATO AND THE EU in the region. Bulgaria IS ALSO NATO AND THE EU IN THE REGION. There are many tasks ahead of Bulgaria that are difficult but within its power. That is why Bulgaria should focus its efforts, attention, priorities in the region. Not to mention that we are lagging behind at a rather rapid pace from the so-called „cashing in“ on our unique geopolitical position. Highways, corridors, pipelines, key projects surround us. Having a unique situation is geography; but to use it for the interests, security and prosperity of the state, society and citizens – that is geopolitics.
  
  Explanation:
  Genesis – origin, appearance, emergence, birth, creation, development.
  
  ● TREND 11. Return to international relations of force methods for overcoming disputes, crisis management and conflict resolution
  The use of force on the slightest occasion becomes again the main means of proving the right and imposing the will. Thus the right of the forceful becomes force, and their force becomes the right. We see the most brutal realization of this trend in the war that Russia is waging with Ukraine. A war without any pretext, reason or justification, taking us back to the times of mindless cruelty of the First and Second World Wars. It is not for nothing that a number of analysts and politicians talk about, almost, the beginning of the Third World War.
  At least as far as Europe is concerned, the years of relative peace since the end of the bipolar system seem gone forever. Russia's aggression has outlined the prospects for our continent as extremely worrying. If Russia wins in Ukraine, undoubtedly it will not stop and be satisfied with this victory, it will attack other countries – Baltic States, Moldova, Bulgaria. It is an illusion to blindly believe that we will get away with it.
  Let's be clear – the right of the forceful has never meant that the forceful is right. Unfortunately, the potence of law has also never been the omnipotence of law. And yet, striving to establish the rule of law in the state or in international relations is the only true approach to overcoming the enormous conflict in our world.
  When the forceful imposes his will by force, then the only thing left for the weak is to strike back, deter aggression, resort to asymmetric responses and very often, even as a rule, to backstabbing and ambushing, resorting to various forms of terrorism – a cheap means for expensive consequences. This is not to say that there is good and bad terrorism. Terrorism is the plague of the 21st century. And every plague is a disaster.
  
  ● TREND 12. Depletion of the main non-renewable or hard-to-renew strategic resources of the planet
  The horizon of depletion (as opportunities for industrial or mass use) of resources such as oil and natural gas, wood, drinking water, non-ferrous, ferrous and precious metals, etc., is in the near future – commensurate with the life span of one human generation ( 30 – 50 – 70 years). This trend brings energy security much more to the fore among the leading dimensions of security. As a result:
  1. The science of geoenergetics is born – an analogue of geopolitics and geoeconomics. In other words, we are not talking about regional or even global energy, but about geoenergy. It is a science studying the influence of energy resources, energy, energy advantages and disadvantages of a country on its policy, i.e. not only on its economy and industry. The object of analysis are the geo-energy dimensions and aspects of security, the key energy spaces, the political, economic, financial (and military!) configurations determining the confrontations between countries possessing and producing energy raw materials and countries importing and consuming energy raw materials. The strategies of such alliances of states are radically different. The first type of countries (i.e. producers) seek to diversify buyers. The second type of countries (i.e. consumers) seek to diversify suppliers.
  So, the geopolitics of energy has today been replaced by the energy of geopolitics.
  2. Energy security, politics and economics rise to the highest strategic level. These days they are too complicated a thing to be left to the energy professionals. Before, whatever foreign policy was conducted, such was the energy policy of the country. Now more and more whatever the energy policy is, such is the foreign policy of the country.
  3. The reduction and depletion of strategic resources results in series of crisis situations, new and ineffectively (badly) managed risks arise.
  4. In the energy sphere, the divergence of the interests of the European Union and Russia deepened. Russia has defined itself as an „energy superpower“ due to the transformation of energy resources into a major dimension of its power. And this divergence logically created prerequisites for the emergence of serious contradictions between the EU and Russia, as well as for forceful, self-confident and non-compliant with EU positions behavior of Russia. And from here, the requirements for a far more flexible, much more reasonable national and at the same time undoubtedly pro-European energy policy of Bulgaria gained a higher degree of relevance.
  The treacherous and unprovoked war that Russia is waging against Ukraine quite naturally prompted the EU and its member states to radically rethink relations with Russia in the energy sphere and reduce their raw material dependence on it as much as possible.
  5. The meaning of our region is changing. Now the Black Sea region is not a periphery of the Balkans, but the Balkans are becoming a periphery of the Black Sea region. The Black Sea region has two important meanings – as a producer and a as corridor for the transit of strategic raw materials, while the Balkans has one main meaning – as a corridor for the transit of strategic raw materials, of a region through which raw materials will reach European markets. Thus, Bulgaria can use its geographical position more effectively, but serious dangers also arise – from its increased transformation into a corridor territory.
  
  Explanation:
  The history from the most ancient centuries proves that several types (groups) of peoples irretrievably disappeared from the face of the Earth, sometimes without leaving a memory of their existence.
  
  ⁕ The first type (group) of peoples are the „frontier“, „peripheral“ – the peoples located on the periphery, at the borders of the empires (of the great powers, the great states). They „specialized“ in guarding the empire's borders, the empire paid them handsomely for it, rewarded them with courtship and respect. Representatives of these peoples rose high in the hierarchy of the metropolis, some of them became even emperors, but the peoples themselves were lost in the sands of time. The reason for this fate is mainly that they lived without particular problems, because they received high incomes almost ready as frontier tribes (where there is a border, there is a customs, i.e. another source for large income), they have not created material and spiritual culture. The creation of material and spiritual culture is a condition for the development of the people, for the complexity of its social structure and for giving right answers to the challenges of life.
  
  ⁕ The second type (group) of peoples are the „blessed“, „endowed with natural goods“ – the peoples living in optimally good natural (climatic, resource, soil, relief, river, sea, etc.) conditions. These peoples received everything from nature, they did not have to strain, to work hard and transform the environment for living. Therefore, they also did not create material and spiritual culture, and no trace of them remained.
  In the context of the reasoning about this type (group) of peoples is also what is happening in Russia – it continues to be a petrol and gas station masquerading as a state. Revenues from oil and gas sales (along with the staggering scale of corruption of Putin's elite and oligarchic gang) have taught those in power in Russia not to focus on high-tech industry, almost everything that is created with modern technology, Russia imports from outside. And now, because of the sanctions, it continues to do so, but the supply line is getting longer and many (including Western!) companies and countries are profiting as producers and middlemen in this ever longer line. At the same time, in Russia, enterprises are going out of order, the entire infrastructure is collapsing (even collapsing) – road, transport and aviation, energy and heating, computer and medical infrastructure.
  
  ⁕ The third type (group) of peoples are the „corridor“, „roadside“ – the peoples located along the caravan routes (e.g. the Silk Road), along the corridors, highways, routes along which the armies moved. The main concern of these peoples was to serve the passing caravans, traders, soldiers, passengers and travelers. How much it took a man to organize the service – an inn, a few boys to look after the horses of the passers-by and a few girls to make their nights sweeter. That is why these peoples did not create a material and spiritual culture by which they could be remembered, distinguished historically and creatively.
  From this warning of History follows one of the main dangers facing our region and, of course, Bulgaria. This danger is expressed in the imposition of the so-called corridor thinking.
  The attitude towards the Balkans, and Bulgaria in particular, should not be a corridor one – as a transit space, as a population that can (should?!) primarily perform service functions in relation to those passing through these corridors.
  There is no shameful profession if it is practiced with diligence, professionalism and preservation of human dignity. Chambermaiding and waitering are also normal, valued and necessary professions, but not all Bulgarians can be chambermaids or waiters. History proves that a nation that does not create a material and spiritual culture is doomed to gradual disappearance. To corridor countries with service functions for the local population have long been assigned the protection of roads and passages through which the caravans pass (in modern language – the corridors: communication, transport, for the transfer and transportation of raw materials, energy, capital, goods, information, messages and people ), plus the services – today's variants of inns and brothels. In return, the great powers looked favorably on the local people picking up this and that dropped from the caravans.
  
  6. It's rush hour, perhaps the last hour for major projects of long-term importance (pipelines and power plants). Whatever is built in the next 10-15 years such as pipelines and energy routes will be the apogee of the routes, efforts and geopolitical battles. After that, gradually a reckoning will be made of what has been done and built, and whoever managed to „rank“ ahead and more rationally, will reap the fruits of his effective policy, and whoever fails to extract even the minimum, will collect losses and downgrade his economic and even more national self-confidence.
  
  Explanation:
  Diversification – searching for new markets or new suppliers, products and technologies.
  Metropolis – the state in terms of its colonies and governed territories.
  The Silk Road – an ancient trade route connecting China with the Mediterranean. Silk, produced only in China, is the main commodity transported on this route.
  Apogee – the point in an Earth's orbit furthest from the center of the Earth. It is used as the maximum degree of development, flowering, peak, highest point of the creative flight.
  
  ● TREND 13. Growing ambitions for a much more significant global role of the three one billion communities – the Islamic world, China and India
  • The Islamic world is a special case in international relations. It possesses large human and material resources (nearly 60% of oil reserves) which are a wonderful instrument of influence in the bosom of this great, seething, highly emotional religion, which moreover, experiences itself as an ideology, i.e. as an ambition to decisively change the world. Islam has a global presence in Asia and Africa, in North America and Europe. However, its problems are more than their solutions. Islam does not have a leader state that can powerfully pull others forward and drag them along with its example. The religion itself is mainly divided into Sunnis and Shiites, but the division also goes by ethnicities, nations, races – Arabs, Turks, Persians, blacks, etc. Islam, through some extreme currents, today radiates aggression and expansion towards other religions and creates the wrong impression that there is something originally extreme, destructive in it. It fails to offer the world universal values, it cannot inspire confidence to the point of being a leader. If Islam does not experience its Reformation, if it does not modernize and adapt to global processes, it will turn a large part of world public opinion against itself. And since it wants to appear as an instigator for huge masses of wronged and embittered people, it is more a destroyer of the status quo than a creator of the future, a bearer of a reasonable alternative.
  
  • China is also a special case in international relations. We have written about its prospects of being a key country in these relations. Whether we see China as one of the Great Powers in the near or far future, or assume that it will emerge as the only Great Power in the mid-21st century, there is no doubt that China's ambitions and influence will grow. The question for a long time was whether the US and/or Russia would be tempted to play the China card in seeking to counterbalance each other. Lately, however, Putin's Russia has assumed the role of junior partner in relations with China and has begun to become almost irreversibly its resource appendage. After the dollar and the euro have been declared by the Kremlin as enemy currencies, Russia is accumulating reserves in other currencies and especially in Chinese yuan. A massive de-dollarization and de-euro-ization of Russia's financial and economic system is underway. To an unacceptable extent, they are being replaced by yuan-ization of the Russian economy and finance. After all, parallel attempts at rupee-ization fail because the rupee is not – let's put it this way – a world currency and Russia is unable to do anything with the countless rupees with which India pays Russia for the cheap oil and gas it receives from Russia in countless quantities. Ordinary Russians, able to save at least some surplus income, are frantically switching to yuan.
  It is not in vain that we talk about the yuanization of Russia. In fact, it is about the total Chineseization of everything Russian. Russia is turning into a cheap raw material appendage of China. China trades trinkets, mirrors, glass beads (cars, industrial goods, dual-use goods and spare parts for the military industry, chips, technology) for Russian gold (real gold and black gold – oil and gas, wood, non-ferrous, black and precious metals). China is profiting fabulously from relations with Putin's Russia – cheap raw materials for high-tech production. China is not investing in Russia. China is not interested in developing technology and production in Russia, because it has enough of them. He wins when Russia is poor, cornered, sanctioned, tossing up and down like a fish on dry land, selling off national wealth for nothing.
  
  • India is a special and will become an increasingly special case in international relations. Until recently, it was thought that the only thing worth mentioning in the big game was its rapidly growing population. These nearly 1 billion and a half people by themselves, according to the law of large numbers, can influence both quantitatively and qualitatively world processes. But the possession of nuclear weapons, the severe ethnic and religious problems, the new role that the US, China, Russia, each for their own reasons, are assigning to India – this means that another not-so-well-known variable must be added to the global system of equations. India is an example of a response that a traditional, until recently backward society gives to the challenges of today's complex times. Instead of closing in on itself, thanks to democratic practices, India quickly adapted to new information technologies and supplied developed countries with vast masses of creative labor and „grey matter“. From the contact of these young people with the West, attitudes and habits are returning to India for rapid adaptation and growing prosperity in the conditions of an open society, competition and globalization.
  
  Explanation:
  Numbers: Islam – 1 billion and 900 million people; China – 1 billion 400 million people; India – 1 billion and 400 million people.
  Sunnis – the first branch of Islam in terms of numbers with over 1 billion and 600 million believers, i.e. 85 – 90% of all Muslims. They do not recognize mediation between God and people after the death of the Prophet Muhammad. For them, it is important to follow the Sunnah (deeds and sayings) of the Prophet and the participation of the community in the election of its head – the caliph.
  Shiites – the second largest branch of Islam, with about 200 million believers, i.e. 10 – 15% of Muslims. They recognize Ali, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad, and his descendants as the rightful heirs of the Prophet Muhammad. Their community should be led by an imam who is a direct descendant of the Prophet, not by elected caliphs.
  Reformation – a religious movement in Western Europe that led to the separation of Protestantism as a direction in Christianity. Its beginning is considered 31.10.1517, when the German theologian Martin Luther (1483 – 1546) hung „The Ninety-five Theses or Disputation on the Power of Indulgences“ on the door of the church in the city of Wittenberg.
  Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee – the official currencies of China and India, respectively.
  
  ● TREND 14. Development of demographic trends gradually changing the ethnic, religious and racial balance on a global scale
  In the Balkans (through the Albanian ethnic group) we have seen the destabilizing potential that rapid changes in demographic ratios can have. After all, on every scale and in every dimension of the demographic processes (ethnic, religious and racial), Bulgaria is among the losers, or at least among the most affected. Prominent scientists are ringing an alarming bell that the Bulgarian ethnic group is melting and we are already in transition from a demographic crisis to a demographic catastrophe. The Orthodox religion is also declining as a percentage of the other major religions. And the white race, as can be seen mainly from the unfolding trends in Europe, but also in the USA, in Russia, is in continuous and irreversible retreat.
  Without making generalizations, we will point out that such changes are dramatic, first of all, because they lead to a reassessment of a number inherent in different ethnicities, religions and races, understandings of law, ethics and morality, just and unjust, good and evil, for artistic samples and values. We are not talking about whether these understandings become better or worse, but that when they change, the world will no longer be the same.
  Demographic processes, having a direct impact on the world, Europe, the region and Bulgaria, are a serious challenge for Bulgaria and Bulgarians as a country, society and citizens. They put with great sharpness and priority the need for a caring attitude towards the Bulgarian identity and national values, which would unite Bulgarians in the Community:
  › A community aimed at a better – modern, European and democratic – future for Bulgaria, simultaneously with the preservation of the Bulgarian character of the Bulgarian state and the inclusion of the Bulgarian identity in the European civilizational identity;
  › A community that unites Bulgarian Bulgarians, Turks, Roma, Jews, Armenians and all others – in our country and abroad – who perceive Bulgaria as their Motherland and empathize with themselves as an individual or community part of it.
  The sources of the pride that seeped into our genes, that we are a part of a people with an amazing historical destiny, the fruit of combining in a phenomenal, tenacious mixture (in the middle of such an alarming crossroads) two radically opposite worlds – of the Pra[Proto]-Bulgarian and the Slavic, of the horseman and the farmer, of the hunter and the sower, of the wanderer and the homesteader – should not dry up in our country. Contrary to historical logic, Bulgarian people survived during these 13-14 centuries, often injected spirit and will into the surrounding world, was a barrier to destructive influences, absorbed evil, rethought it to give birth to good, faith, space. And to hope.
  In Bulgarians there is a lot of the Pra-Bulgarian spirit, of the the rider, the road, the urge to see what is far away, beyond the horizon. The Pra-Bulgarian is a person for whom the homeland is where he feels good, where he can live better, where there is more security.
  But more than Pra-Bulgarian in Bulgarians is Slavic. It has enveloped their entire life-being – space and time, consciousness, love for the earth, for the seed and the fruit, it has sprinkled it into the dough, into the clay from which Bulgarian souls and bodies are sculpted. The Slav, when he stops somewhere, sinks his roots as deep as possible into the ground, bends, but stands firm, defends himself, resists the winds that blow him. For the Slav, the homeland is where his grandfather's grave is, where his father's home is, where he was born, where his children became human beeings, where his grandchildren grew unexpectedly quickly. Even if an enemy or misery drives him out of there, he always returns, and if he cannot do otherwise, then he rerurns with his thoughts and memories. In this sense, Bulgarians are Slavs, in this sense, Slavism (for better or for worse) is a worldview and destiny and has entered forever into Bulgarian historical DNA.
  The constant and sometimes violent divisions of Bulgarian people and society – into communists and democrats, into philes and phobes, into victims and martyrs, into bad and good – these are all attempts to get the Bulgarian into simplified schemes that are foreign and incompatible with his history-laden personal and community memory. Such black and white thinking is more characteristic of young, self-confident and aggressive peoples. Bulgarian perception of reality is more complex, more nuanced. The Bulgarian is tolerant towards the Other, towards Otherness. If we take a look at folk art, mythology, the epic, we will see many examples from which it is difficult to unambiguously indicate who is the good and who is the bad; who is right and who is wrong; who is the righteous and who is the sinner.
  At the same time, taking care of the national identity, let's make it clear to ourselves that this identity of Bulgarian is not only not incompatible with the European one, but on the contrary – it is compatible, it is harmonious with it! As a wise man says, Bulgarians can (we will add – we must) behave like Bulgarians in Europe and like Europeans in Bulgaria.
  
  ● TREND 15. Turning the world into an increasingly common and self-inducing field (space) of protest and disagreement with the way elites in individual countries govern and make decisions on key issues for the respective country
  In recent years, we have witnessed waves of protests spilling over from one country to another. Disagreement is transmitted as if it were a contagion, and it doesn't matter what exactly is the reason for a protest in a given country and what exactly are the problems in its neighboring country – the former „infects“ the latter with public unrest. The world is aflame ready to protest, societies are, figuratively speaking, with one foot in the squares, determined to protest anything worth protesting. We have a global pandemic of protest, countries are really infecting each other with waves of rebellion and dissent and it's increasingly difficult not only to impose a decision, but to think about imposing a decision that touches the bare nerves of society, unless you do not value at all and you do not care about democracy and legality, but rule authoritarian or totalitarian, doing this not only with hard, structural violence, but also with soft, symbolic violenc.
  The global pandemic of protests everywhere, in every country, has a national or local specificity. Perhaps that is why analysts and media prefer to look at the national or local specifics and for this reason they talked about Arab Spring, Asian Spring, Turkish Spring. In fact, it is about a GLOBAL SPRING.
  
  • In 1848 – 1949, Europe experienced its First Spring, called the SPRING OF NATIONS.
  • In 1975, Europe and North America (USA and Canada) experienced the Second Spring, marked by the apogee of the Helsinki Process – the Helsinki Conference. It was primarily the SPRING OF STATES.
  • After 2010, the world experiences the Third Spring, and it is not only European; it has not only a continental but an increasingly global character. And it can be called the SPRING OF SOCIETIES (mostly in the sense of civil societies).

  If before people went to the square to protest after exhausting all other options, today the first thing they do is to go to the square to protest. We could not speak of awakened nations – the protests affect a part, and not a very large one, of the nations anyway. However, this is no longer a process in which the main (or at least significant) role is played by the states, i.e. their political leaders. What is happening is the work of organizations, associations, groups and individual actors from civil societies, or at least the beginnings of civil societies in some places. And being part of civil society requires much more than being part of society, and even more so – of the people. It is about a different type of political culture and a different kind of social sensibility... That is why we call these processes the Spring of societies, and may this just-coming Spring not be frozen by a sudden Winter.
  
  Explanation:
  Self-inducing – arising under the influence of oneself; self-generating, self-exciting, self-infecting.
  Spring of Nations or European Spring – a common name for the revolutions and revolutionary movements of 1848 – 1849.
  The Helsinki Process – it began in the first half of the 70s of the 20th century and was aimed at the restructuring of international relations and the reconciliation between capitalism and socialism. At the conference in Helsinki (30.07. - 01.08.1975), the heads of state of 33 European countries, the USA and Canada, signed the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Final Act).
  
  The far easier mobilization of people through social networks is often pointed out. Yes, the qualitatively new role played by networking, social networks, high communication and information technologies in politics is unquestionable. They significantly speed up the flow of information and the spread of messages. But even with the increased conductivity of the medium is above all medium and mediation; the medium is above all a means, although one cannot dispute the thesis of the eminent Canadian philosopher, culturalist, communication and media researcher Marshall McLuhan (1911–1980) that „the medium is the message“) [48]. In social activity, however, the most important thing is what is spread through the Social Network. That's right, the Social Network affects social activity, but everything starts from the perceived need for social activity. The question of the new quality and civic essence of the protests is not in technology, but in culture – the culture of citizenship, because to be a net-citizen, you must first be a citizen. This is proven by a very small part of Bulgarian society and hundreds of thousands of people around the world.
  The world is truly experiencing a time of Spring of societies. It wakes up and, as we said, it has one foot in the square. The reasons for what is happening must be analyzed. Because, let's say it again, social networks are not a cause, they are a medium, they are a means. Their role is huge. But there are deeper reasons. Some of these reasons are as follows:
  1. The awareness of the world as a common space – due to globalization, due to its hyper-permeability (of real and virtual borders) and hyper-conductivity (of the spread of ideas, people, capital, models, illusions...). The „contagion“ of some countries, societies, areas, regions by other countries, societies, areas, regions leads to the igniting of a worldwide pandemic of dissent and disobedience, rebellion and resistance.
  2. The establishment globally (we talked about this earlier) of a somewhat anti-social, anti-cultural and anti-civilization ultra-liberal geo-economic model, absolutizing the market, competition, private property and profit, personal selfishness, irresponsible risk, material greed and consumer gluttony.
  3. The self-forgetfulness of the [political] elites, their lack of strategic thinking, their absence of unifying ideas, complacency, arrogance, corruption, heartlessness, the trampling of democracy, the use of new communication and information technologies for manipulation, disinformation, cheating, lying and PR, their separation from societies and nations in a self-sufficient ultra-luxury, parallel world, in gated neighborhoods with hyper-security measures and a staggeringly high standard.
  4. The acute shortage of new, alternative social, public, political models to inspire and motivate people, to give them a sense of meaning, of cause and purpose, of empathy and awareness of their individual, group and national significance, for a new planetary community, belonging, togetherness and integration.
  
  ● TREND 16. Radical changes in the functioning of international politics with the accelerated entry of modern and high-tech communications, when everything that happens and needs to be reacted to will be online.
  The topic is really serious, because the high dynamics of events are totally changing the understanding of international relations and security, foreign policy and diplomacy. Space is narrowing decisively, time is speeding up incredibly, the situation is changing rapidly and this requires much faster reactions. The mechanisms of democracy are cumbersome and the decision-making procedures are complex. The excuse no longer applies – we lack information! No one will wait for us to study, to think, to elaborate a position. It is necessary to know what we are thinking and what we are doing at the moment when the event is happening! The role of strategic forecasting and foresight, of early warning and proactive behavior, of adequately developed strategy, of clearly defined priorities to guide statesmen, to be their landmarks and limitations, is growing. The need for political vision and political character of these statesmen becomes especially key – so that they can take responsibility, not lose their presence of mind, act sensibly and responsibly when and if events take an unexpected turn.
  The diplomatic profession is at a crossroads. The effectiveness of large diplomatic missions in foreign capitals is declining. In the space of the Internet and in the world of global communications, a significant part of the importance of diplomats abroad is lost – they face the double risk: 1. of not being informed (qualitatively) more than their colleagues and the politicians in their country; 2. to be too isolated from the processes in it, which weakens the connection with the real situation in the homeland, and together with that, with its priorities and interests at the moment. In the new information environment, in order to be effective enough, diplomacy must look for a new face in which the routine, the parquet habits, the ritualized manners, the partly aristocratic behavior, the patina of the old profession are displaced by another dynamic with compressed energy and high tension; the collection of information gives way to its analysis, and the observation of processes increasingly (and irreversibly) gives way to their prediction.
  
  Explanation:
  Patina – the oxidation coating that forms on metal products. Patina on gold coins is extremely rare and beautiful. The presence of patina in numismatics and antiques is valued as a sign of age and authenticity.
  
  The outlined trends show and prove how complex, how dynamic and how risky the security environment (global, continental, regional and national) is for us to think that foreign policy, security policy, defense policy and internal order policy are done lightly and easily, following the line of least resistance or the direction of the geopolitical wind. Therefore, it is necessary to precisely define the possible parameters of national behavior, and this requires the mobilization of Bulgarian expert resource for a debate on Bulgaria's strategy on the international stage in the current dramatic and full of challenges and risks, dangers and threats time, which is reviving many old stereotypes of political realism (egoism) and is giving birth to many new possibilities and alternatives.
  
  
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Kara-Murza, Sergei. Poterianniy razum. Moskva: Eksmo, 2005, http://www.kara-murza.ru/books/Razum/index.html, s. 449.
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  Ionchev, Dimitar. Ravnishta na sigurnost. Sofia: NBU, 2008, s. 222.
   (Yonchev, Dimitar. Security levels)
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  42. See eg: Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, Oxford University Press, 2014.
  43. Harari, Yuval Noah. Homo Deus. A Brief History of Tomorrow. New York: HarperCillins Publishers, 2015, 215 - 216.
  44. Siddhartha Mukherjee, The Gene. An Intimate History, The Bodley Head, an imprint of Vintage, 2016, 2014, p. 23.
  45. Ibid., p. 387.
  46. Harari, Yuval Noah. 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, London: Jonathan Cape, 2018, 19 – 22, 54 – 55.
  47. Космическите катастрофи, https://www.astro.bas.bg/~komitov/cataclis.htm. (in Bulgarian)
Kosmicheski katastrofi, https://www.astro.bas.bg/~komitov/cataclis.htm.
(Space disasters)
  48. McLuhan, Marshall. Understanding Media The extensions of man. Cambridge, Massachusetts London: The MIT Press, 1994, р. 7.
  
  
  02.06.2024
  
  
  Brief explanation:
  The texts of my Studies have been translated into English by me. They have not been read and edited by a native English speaker, nor by a professional translator. Therefore, all errors and ambiguities caused by the quality of the translation are solely mine. But I have been guided by the thought that the purpose of these Studies is to give information about my contributions to the Science of Security by presenting them in a brief exposition, and not to demonstrate excellent English, which, unfortunately, I cannot boast of.