The Fear of the Fear

1983 - The Kremlin vehemently denied responsibility for the downing of the South Korean airliner.
2006 - The Kremlin categorically denied Russian involvement in the radioactive polonium poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.
2014 - The Kremlin strongly denied responsibility for the downing of the Malaysian airliner.
(Early in) 2022 - The Kremlin flatly denied that it was planning military action against Ukraine.
November 15, 2022 - The Kremlin categorically denies any connection with the missiles that hit Poland.

The Tale of the Lying Shepherd...

We are used to the Kremlin lying obscenely and cynically whenever it is convenient for him or he is caught at the scene of the crime.
That is why it is the Kremlin should not be angry when it is the usual suspect in another atrocity.. Kremlin outrages have become too much, especially since, in addition to the bombs in Poland, yesterday was accompanied by continuous and unprecedented even for the war of racism against Ukraine bombings of cities and critical infrastructure.

This is what a Ukrainian friend wrote to me after these bombings:
„Yesterday was a very hard day. Apart from all other fears and anxieties, we had no lights for a long time, until the evening we were without electricity, the radiators were cold, the water flowed in a thin trickle. Joyless and bleak.”

We can see how everyone enthusiastically and with relief welcomes the moderate and careful reactions of the West, NATO, the EU and Poland itself regarding the two Russian-made missiles that caused destruction and casualties in Poland.

On the one hand, it should be so, as there is still some uncertainty, indeterminacy, vagueness, unknownness about whose missiles are these.

On the other hand - this is still the same wishful thinking, still the same closing of the eyes, still the same burying the head under the pillow, still the same hope to get away with it this time too – reactions and illusions, so characteristic before and after February 24 for the democratic world, for the West, for NATO, for the EU.

We see and think not what is, but what we want to be.
Still, the Kremlin villain is seen as a rational player with rational ambitions, with a rational strategy, with rational actions.
And one should not close one's eyes - one should look the truth in the eyes!

If the Kremlin villain is not stopped today, we will have to stop him tomorrow with many times more effort at many times the cost..

There are still some options, albeit diminishing in quantity and deteriorating in quality, for this villain to be stopped by Ukraine alone, without direct Western intervention in the war, but for that purpose military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine must be tripled and even tenfold.
Ukraine, I continue to argue, should be given HIMARS missiles with a range of 200 km (not 80 km). This will be the next and almost last ditch effort to avoid the direct military conflict that the Villain wants to draw the West into and make it absolutely possible that the rashists will lose the war even before the end of winter.
With these missiles, for example, the Crimean bridge will be completely destroyed. This will cut off military supplies. Crimea, Mariupol, etc. will already fall within the reach of the Ukrainian armed forces. The military fleet (and not only the military fleet) in Sevastopol will face a gloomy prospect for its existence, or at least for its combat capability, which even now is too relative.
All this will inevitably force the Kremlin to urgently seek negotiations with the assistance not only of Turkey, but also - possibly - of China.
In these negotiations, I do not exclude for the first time that the Kremlin will talk about the status of Crimea - as some kind of hybrid and time-delayed solution.

(Of the type I have been proposing since the war began - a 10-year transition period after which Crimea would become a condominium with established joint sovereign power by Ukraine and Russia, along the lines of Andorra, which is jointly ruled by France and Spain.)

Instead of decisive assistance from the West for Ukraine, so that it can consolidate its incredible military successes and to figuratively turn the battle into a one-way street, the West, continues to think cautiously, to run on the fringes of the military conflict, to soothe the conscience you are with what you want to help instead of what you need to help.
And the West is terribly afraid of the Villain resorting to a nuclear strike. But the fear of a nuclear strike will diminish when the belief that such a strike is possible melts away. The West has invented a Fear and is terribly afraid of it. It is the Fear of Fear that paralyzes the West.
And this Fear of Fear is one part of the explanation for the West's vaunted so moderate and so cautious responses to the bombs that fell in Poland yesterday. We wish they weren't Russian, and so we believe they aren't Russian…

16.11.2022