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After 4 months...

Putin looks to me like Gorbachev after the failed coup of August 1991. He supposedly returned with a triumph, supposedly the world rested, supposedly things went away. And after 4 months his state collapsed and he became Mr. Nobody.


A Mess

My friend is sad:
- There was not a coup, even as a farce, like in August 1991!
I answer him:
- Either way, Russia has disgraced itself extremely in the eyes of the whole world! She looks like an alcoholic who rolls up his sleeves, threatens to fight, and falls dead drunk under the table.
Russia is a mess where an ex-prisoner can call the president an asshole and get to Moscow with his gang without any problems.
And Putin became a caricature: coward, running in disgrace, making a deal with a thug who blackmailed him. And this is a man with a nuclear briefcase!


A black swan flaps its wings over Russia

Russia is at a bifurcation point. Even the smallest impact can have huge consequences.
All scenarios, even with negligible probability, are possible: from a storm in a teacup to a catastrophic tsunami.
A black swan flaps its wings over Russia.
The Hour of the unknown unknowns!


Game of Thrones

Now is the time to recall my unchanging thesis about Prigogin (I may have to change it):
- Prigozhin is a power tool of those parts of the Russian elites (oligarchs, Chekists, military, police) who want to overthrow Putin from power, but are afraid to do it themselves.

When Putin will be removed from power with the help of the Prigozhin power tool, Prigozhin and PMC "Wagner" will be disposed of. Prigozhin is expendable material, he is doomed, Putin is also doomed.

The question remains:
And won't the power tool Prigogine emancipate himself from those who want to use him and start his game of thrones?


Game Changer

A week ago, I talked to a close person about Ukraine. I was worried that the West did not provided Ukraine with combat aircraft and long-range missiles, which slows down the pace and raises the cost of a counteroffensive.
Experts say the West is arming Ukraine for the past war, not for the present war.

This close person answered my worries like this:
- The offensive of Ukraine is slow, because they are waiting for something. Something significant, like Game Changer.
- What?
- Wait ten days.

Today I thought: Is this not Prigogine's rebellion? After all, it can escalate into a Civil War!


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