Strategy Synergy Security

I keep in constant contact with friends from Russia. It strikes me that there are two themes in their (independent) narratives.

First, they are writing about the fact that the resettlement of entire families and a wide circle of relatives has arisen and is becoming more frequent - from settlements near the war zones inland. People decide literally from today to today and leave without telling their neighbors and friends. They load their cars with huge luggage and just leave.
Their hearts are healed, their souls are aching. They are afraid that they will not break through the cordons of soldiers and policemen with machine guns and masks on their faces. They fear that their homes will be ransacked as soon as it becomes clear that they have left them.

The war against Ukraine of the King Rat hiding in his bunker has entered a new phase.
The incredible, unexpected, irrefutable and unavoidable successes of Ukraine on the war fronts have convincingly shown and proven that Ukraine is winning military battles, and it is only a matter of time before it wins an even greater victory, which will be the worst defeat of the Kremlin army since the Great Patriotic War, surpassing even the inglorious losses and panicked retreat in Afghanistan.

As is well known - and I did not invent it - it is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
It is even more difficult to predict how the war of rashism against Ukraine will continue and how it will end.
Perhaps, guided by the maxim that words fly away, but what is written remains, I will try to predict in the near future how, in my opinion, the processes will develop in this cruel and unprovoked war of the Kremlin’s villain against the Ukrainians – let my written words stay and whoever wants, let him will know - what I assumed and predicted, so that later it would be possible to judge whether I was right or not, instead of attributing to me what does not belong to me, what I never said, much less I never thought, and all sorts of other absurdities.

And now I will only say the following.

As expected, Russia withdrew from the Ukrainian grain export deal. For millions, or rather hundreds of millions of people around the world, such a decision could lead to colossal and prolonged famine, which portends gloomy forecasts and catastrophic consequences.
This action of the Kremlin villain can be explained in different ways, and one can name, in particular, the following reason for his undertaking.

Report prepared for the Conference entitled Conflictology and Security
University for National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria
October 17-18, 2007, by Assoc. Prof. Nikolay Slatinski, Ph.D.
(Final version: October 17, 2007)

  The contemporary trends in international relations, their active dynamics, unpredictability and non-linearity, the change in the security paradigm, prove to be a serious challenge to conflictology and conflictologists. But more than some challenge, isn’t all going on also a peculiar punishment for this science and these scientists that they indulged in self-complacency, in seeking explanation and modeling of the processes with the traditional means and methods of analysis, although re-offered in an attractive packing for the fashionable wording for categories and concepts: synergy and self-organization, dissipative structures and chaos? The very modern categories and concepts have no bearing on that, of course.