In this site I express only and uniquely my personal views and convictions, therefore it could in no way bind the institutions in which I am employed.
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IF PUTIN WINS IN UKRAINE

I hope that what is written below is not perceived as pessimistic, but as a realistic text.
Nowhere is it said that realistic thinking is necessarily optimistic. Sometimes it can bring us doubts and worries.
What realism and pessimism have in common is that they also have negative, including bad, development scenarios.
The difference between realism and pessimism is that realism predicts among others the best possible scenario as well, while pessimism predicts among others the worst possible scenario as well.

THE WORLD SEEMS TO BE GOING CRAZY

With his cannibalistic, treacherous war in Ukraine, Putin has achieved its goal.
With its cannibalistic, brutal carnage in Israel, Hamas has achieved its goal.
They have pushed the world into uncertainty, obscurity, ambiguity, instability, uncertainty.
They made the world black and white.
Israel is now putting out the fire with gasoline.

THE WEST – WILL IT BECOME HOSTAGE IN THIS CONFLICT?

The brutal carnage wrought on October 7 by Hamas thugs not only lifted the lid on Pandora's Box in this explosive region, constantly generating strategic challenges, risks, dangers and threats, but smashed, destroyed, annihilated that lid!
Different scenarios of tensions and conflicts have become possible, and in today's time of uncertainties, unknowns, instabilities and insecurities, it is a frank premise that the worst of all these scenarios will be realized. This worst-case scenario is not just likely. Unfortunately, it is also possible.

I still hope that the West will not fail

Let's say it openly and frankly:
We are witnessing the first very disturbing negative signals that things in, about, with and around Ukraine are not going well.
And the reason is not that with thousands of corpses, Russia ends the war year 2023 with an offensive in separate places, and especially for some hills with waste from the mines near Avdeevka.
And the reason is not that - except for the thousands of dead and the destruction of villages and towns - there is (almost) nothing new on the Ukrainian front.

STUDIES ON SECURITY: STUDY 24. ON THE FUNDAMENTAL ROLE AND ESSENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN RISKOLOGY

  These Studies on Security contain only the results of my scientific views, research, analyses and models. In other words, they provide a SUMMARY of my MAJOR contributions to the Science of Security.
  
  STUDY 24. ON THE FUNDAMENTAL ROLE AND ESSENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN RISKOLOGY
  
  The meaning and content of uncertainty as an extremely important systemic, structural, value, resource and security and risk related phenomenon are analyzed.

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