Facebook is not a place for deeper analysis, it has a different character. But to a certain (or uncertain ?) extent it can also serve for a slightly more emotional exchange of ideas and views.
I have been thinking about some reactions to BRICS (and what I have written about it).
Here is what I can say, if it turns out more succinctly, and if not, then as it turns out.
1. I believe that rumors about the future greatness of China are greatly exaggerated. But China is already a very serious power.
And even more important is how China is perceived by others. Many, and their number is growing, hope that China will challenge the US in particular and the West in general.
In a nutshell, there is a (geo)strategic expectation and (geo)political order for China to be the Second Pole.
2. In my view, BRICS should be viewed more broadly than it is with this snide view of its composition, with the obvious gloating over the existence of incompatible interests and the ironic emphasis on China's ambitions in BRICS.
One should not underestimate the fact that on a global scale and with a global scope, thinking and searching for organizational forms for the consolidation of those who dislike the West and who are becoming bolder, seeing the weaknesses of the West, are beginning.
BRICS is such a message:
Dissatisfied and dissenting people of all countries, organize!
At the moment, there is little hope for the success of BRICS's efforts, since in this form BRICS bears the birthmarks of contradictions and incompatibilities between its member countries. But if the West continues to retreat from its global role and from its civilizational leadership, the dissatisfied and dissenting people will gain courage and numbers.
3. In the last decade of the Cold War and the first decade after the Cold War, there was a very clear and understandable sense of the West. This sense was reinforced by the desire of many countries to become part of the West or to adopt Western norms.
However, gradually the feeling arose that yes, there are Western countries, but is there a West?
The withdrawal of the US into itself,
and the "widening of the Atlantic Ocean" - the rift between the US and Europe is becoming wider (and deeper)
have weakened the sense of a united and unified West.
It may be tragic that today in the West there has not crystallized a vision that the West must reverse the trend of disunity and opposition within itself - both for its Leadership and for its own sake.
There has not emerged in the West an understanding that the West can only exist together, as a union of Western countries and by attracting more and more countries to become Western in form and content.
If the West destroys its unity, it is doomed.
Britain may leave the EU, but the EU will continue to exist.
If the US continues to leave the West, the West will cease to exist...
4. Any analogies with the animal world are exaggerated and largely inappropriate.
But!...
There are (I generalize, leaving out details where the Devil sometimes hides) two iconic and unique predators.
Of the "cats" - the Lion, of the "dogs" - the Hyena.
Lions have a "patriarchy", hyenas have a "matriarchy".
Accordingly, the lion is 1.5 times larger and stronger than the lioness, the female hyena is 1.5 times larger and stronger than the male hyena (and even has something very much resembling a male genital organ).
But that's not exactly what I'm talking about.
As a rule, having caught the prey, lions kill it and then eat it. And the dominant males eat first. Then everyone else.
As a rule, having caught the prey, hyenas tear it apart while it is still alive. And the dominant females among them eat first. Then all the others.
The hyena is afraid of the lion, he is much stronger.
But if one or two or three male lions eat the prey first (and all the others watch), then first several hyenas begin to approach, steal pieces of the prey from them, bite them on the backside, while the lions tear the flesh of this prey and eat it greedily and to the maximum.
And then many hyenas gather, and the male lions finally flee, leaving both their prey and their dignity, with bitten backsides, and their faces and legs bleeding from scratches and abrasions.
But if there are lions in a pride - this also happens! - partnership and for one reason or another eat from the prey of both males and females - all together, even with a growl, then hyenas watch from the side, whine, chomp, complain about injustice, but do not dare to attack.
Sorry for the naturalistic analogy, it is only for illustration, for provocation to awareness of global realities...
If the Western "Lions" follow the above-described pattern of dominance of one "Lion" or several "Lions" and do not have the culture and habits of a common and united, single and united "Pride",
sooner or later the non-Western "hyenas" will pounce on them or, at least, unite, ready to stand up for themselves and for a more just (in their opinion) division of power, resources, rights and influence.
Hyenas become more and more courageous if they sense the weakness of lions!
Any "Hyena", even an alpha "Hyena" is weaker than any "Lion", not to mention an alpha "Lion", but "Hyenas" almost always surpass "Lions" in quantity (number), in cohesion, in organization, in clear distribution of roles, in readiness to sacrifice themselves for the sake of the pack, in the desire for evolutionary revenge.
That is why in the deserts, savannas, plains and valleys of the world lions disappear, and hyenas multiply like... No, I will not resort to politically incorrect and ala-racist explanations.
I am writing all this because I am convinced of the following:
The West bears a geopolitical, political, moral and civilizational responsibility to today's world, which, for better or for worse, much more for better than for worse, is built on Western values and understandings - on the values and understandings of the legal and illegal, fair and unfair, moral and immoral, honest and dishonest, beautiful and ugly, etc.
Today the world is in dire need of Western leadership.
But the West can no longer be the sole leader of the world.
The West can no longer continue to believe that it alone will sit in the cabin of the trans-national and trans-century liner of Human Civilization, let alone locked himself in this cabin, sometimes getting drunk or even taking drugs, indulging in all kinds of passions and pleasures, forgetting about the management of this liner.
The West must build bridges to the countries and peoples of the non-West, attract them to the cabin of the liner, help them learn so that they too can control the liner together with it. And convince them in principle and with a sense of mission (but without double and triple standards, without hypocrisy and obsessive permissiveness) that they should isolate the monsters who want to blow up the liner only because they are unable to get on it or cannot learn to behave in a civilized manner in it.
Only in this way will the liner of Human Civilization continue its flight to towards Future. Towards the Future of high information, communication, genetic, medical and space technologies, artificial intelligence and quantum computers.
Only in this way and in no other way...
10/25/2024
