ON THE STRATEGY OF THE WEST IN REGARD TO WAR – WITH HOPE AND WITH PAIN

For several days I was in the very heart of Europe.
Everything (or almost everything) there was connected with football. On the surface of the impressions, it was as if there was no trace of the War, although in fact it was raging very close by.
In Europe, too often the illusion is created that everything is going well and nothing terrible is happening, everything is going on as it always has.
After all, Europe once organized the Olympics in the very lair of Evil, thereby demonstrating that everything went on as before. And the fact that something strange was happening and suddenly Jewish neighbors and colleagues began to disappear - it was most convenient to simply not notice. Europe is not a good place for faint-hearted people...

The sad fact is that Europe generally likes to pretend that it does not see obvious Evil, stretching out black claws and sharpening its iron teeth towards it, but what films, books, memorials and concerts does it create and hold in memory of the victims of this same Evil!

However, I still have to say that on my very last day in the very heart of Europe I saw the painful trace of War - a young man with metal prosthetic legs instead of legs, speaking Ukrainian...

I won't comment on the big Swiss talking heads show that took place over the weekend. I can only sing a Bulgarian pop song to myself - talk, talk, talk, I close my eyes and listen to you...
The main thing for me is that my friends in Kharkov write to me - in recent days it’s already been a little, a little bit easier, although it’s still completely, oh, how completely difficult!

====

The West went through various wanderings and hesitations regarding the War:
Russia must not lose...
Ukraine must not win...
Russia must not win...
Ukraine must not lose...
These were not elements of strategy, these were impulsive, reflexive, confused and somewhat hypocritical reactions.

In fact, until recently there was no West.
-- There was the United States with a deliberately inconsistent and deliberately indecisive position, giving Ukraine a teaspoon a month of aid, with a policy of constantly keeping Ukraine from victorious military actions and with extremely negative signals to Europe.
- And there was Europe, which was shamefully cowardly and overly cautious - both in order to demonstrate partly its solidarity with Ukraine, and in order not to come face to face with a maddened and armed to the teeth (in European perceptions) Russia - because Europe felt that the United States, not only Trump’s, but also Biden’s, would not fight for it if they had to, but they would rather have to.

The West did not have a unified strategy regarding the War, because until recently there was no unified West. Because of this, everything was completely unfinished, obviously unclear, rather dishonest, unacceptably incoherent and absurdly zigzag, so to speak.

The West has refused and continues to refuse Ukraine’s membership in Western alliances and organizations, although these Western alliances and organizations were created primarily for one purpose - to protect and defend the West from the Kremlin aggressor, if this aggressor shows its cannibalistic appetites towards Europe.
And the most shocking thing was that all this was done in relation to Ukraine, which alone and lonely fought against the Kremlin aggressor, who showed cannibalistic appetites towards Europe!
Alone and lonely Ukraine did everything for which Western alliances and organizations were created!!!!

====

But we can already say that the West is beginning to act like the West and has a noticeable - painfully, slowly, but decisively like a snowdrop breaking through the asphalt of cold and darkness - strategy!
This is what fills me with hope and with pain.

And the reason for the beginning of outlining and even implementing the strategy of the West is... Putin! Putin finally got caught - because of his cunning and... stupidity.

What blunders of Putin's strategy allowed the West to wake up and to act?
There are at least four of them.

♦ Putin’s first gross strategic mistake is that he began to act unilaterally, independently, individually, arrogantly and like other dictators before him and especially like Hitler, but in an extremely interdependent, intertwined, mutually integrated and interconnected world. A world that did not exist during the time of the Nazi monster, but exists during the time of the rashist monster.
That other world of Hitler was very hierarchical; the world is controlled by several powerful states.
The current world of Putin (the world during Putin’s time) is highly networked, there are many players (actors) in it - states, transnational companies, transcontinental banks, supraregional and regional alliances, non-governmental organizations, famous personalities and many, many others. .
That other world of those distant times could have been destroyed by the beheading or destruction of some (or most) of the main key player states.
At the same time, although the current world may be seriously shocked by an attack on its networks, nevertheless networks have an amazing property to self-synchronize and self-generate, repair damage, intertwine and mobilize, create new and stronger connections; they create a shared network identity and shared network interests, so while they need reaction time (which can be reduced with the help of forward-thinking political leaders, for which there is a huge shortage today), their reaction is inevitable.
Networks sooner or later are capable of roping, like Lilliputians did with Gulliver, and sometimes much more tightly, every hooligan, every impudent person in geopolitics, every barbaric bandit, every monster state. An example of this is the amazing fact of how nevertheless of all this damn and downright nightmarishly dependent on gas and oil from Russia, Europe in 4-5-6 months has practically freed itself from Russian dependence on gas, and has greatly reduced its dependence on Russian oil (even though it buys it from resellers like India; but in any case, each new link in the chain reduces Russia’s profits and deepens the tendency to isolate Russia from world trade).

♦ Putin’s second gross strategic mistake is that, moving down the path of escalating threats, he inevitably - from direct aggression against Ukraine, then against Europe neighboring Russia, then against Central Europe, finally against Europe as an organic whole - became turn into a huge risk for the West itself as the West!
While Putin made threats and saber rattled against parts of Europe and even parts of the West, the West indulged in hedonism and indifference to the dangers ahead, ignoring the systemic, structural, strategic and civilizational threat posed by Putin's monster state of Russia.
But then, when it became clear that Putin’s goal is precisely the destruction of the West as the West, the West began to remember about itself and to itself that it is the West and that the question is either/or - either there will be leadership of the West, or there will be no West at all.
Putin stepped, so to speak, on a painful hoe, and this hoe hit him and will hit him more and more often and more painfully on his low forehead. He dared to throw down the gauntlet to the West - he, little Putin, an insignificant dwarf with nuclear missiles!

♦ Putin's third gross strategic mistake is that he lives in a fictional world and sees only what he wants to see - some imaginary economic and industrial development of Russia according to some irrational purchasing power parity (PPP) - a fictional criterion that even Somalia can be more prosperous than Japan! This PPP is an energy drink for weak nations, it is not based on real indicators, it creates a fictional world in which the weak “get rid” of their inferiority complex.
Putin does not have an absolutely reliable idea of objective processes and phenomena in the modern world. His fictional "Russia" is not only not the fourth economy in the world - it is an economy commensurate with 1/20 of the Western economy. This is only 5% of the Western economy.
Putin's Russia is an economic and industrial gnome compared to the West.
Putin thinks the world is symmetrical, but the world is very, very asymmetrical, and Putin's Russia is a country on the small side of a huge asymmetry.
Putin is completely unable to accelerate Russia's development to reduce this asymmetry because:
1. Russia does not have the necessary high-quality human resources - all the talented and capable emigrated to the West, and in Russia there has been no investment in human capital for decades;
2. Russia does not have the necessary high technologies - it has not produced anything high-tech for a long time;
3. Russia does not have any competitive advantages for equal participation in the division of the world economic, industrial, technological and financial pie (energy resources themselves have not made anyone happy and successful - they, if they are not invested in development and in the standard of living, in modernization and democratization sooner or later leads to backwardness, corruption, oligarchic system and apocalyptic social stratification);
4. Russia does not have the necessary values on the basis of which significant international support could be forged - Great Russian chauvinism, reactionary Russian Orthodoxy, obsession with imperial greatness, arrogant attitude towards others, especially if they are successful or simply different, the limitations of Duginism as a "philosophical“ foundations of rashism - they cannot find any serious support in any part of the world, in any direction of the geopolitical compass.

♦ Putin’s fourth gross strategic mistake is that he suffers incurably from the illusion that under his leadership he will form a global coalition of all those who are against Western leadership. This has led Russia to a cheap raw materials appendage of China and India, to the poorly managed and endlessly ineffective economic governorship of the Beijing Capital Committee of the Communist Party of China, to the Chineseization of Russia's geostrategic orientation and to the Yuanization of the Russian economy (I also wrote about the possible and already occurred Yuanization of the Russian financial system two years ago).
Yes, Comrade Xi, the new de facto ruler of Russia, does not want the collapse of Russia (yet). He strives to:
1. The weakening of Russia;
2. The preservation of Russia as a cheap raw material appendage;
3. The slowing down Russian industrial efforts - this is why China does not invest in Russian industrial projects;
4. The strengthening centrifugal tendencies in parts of Russia remote from Moscow, because some of these places were once Chinese, and while the world is chewing the Taiwanese cud through its teeth, China is thinking expansionistically and calling by Chinese names exactly those that were once Chinese parts of Russia.

Along the 1,000-kilometer Russian-Chinese border, 10 million Russians (even the majority of them are non-Russian ROssians) and 1 billion Chinese live on one side. Think for yourself, if someone one day shouts to Siberia - Run there, because there are such energy resources there!, who will win this unbridled race for these energy resources.

I can, of course, make much stronger arguments for these four blunders of Chinese vassal Put In's strategic mistakes. But this is my still popular science text for relatively mass consumption...

====

Why does the finally emerging and already implemented strategy of the West, precisely as the West in relation to the War, give me hope and cause me pain?

The hope is that the West will finally stop chatting, doing nothing important, openly pretending to be concerned, feigning a war strategy, and now it has a Strategy!
And this strategy, simply put, is as follows:
- YOU, PUTIN, YOU WANT A WAR OF ATTRACTION? YOU WILL GET IT!

The West begins a war of attrition against Putin's Russia.
And let's see who is who in this War and who benefits from this war!
The West is in no hurry and can very patiently pursue this strategy. After all, it is 20 times richer, stronger, more developed and more high-tech than Putin’s Russia.
The West's strategy will be gradual, constant, relentless, decisive, putting Russia in a corner and even outside the playing field! It will be like a bolt that will go deeper and deeper with each new turn.
The West will continue to deliberately exclude Russia from global economic and financial relations.
Sanction after sanction - but not all at once, not wholesale, not on a grand scale, but where it hurts most - an example is the exclusion of the Moscow Exchange from working with the three strongest, practically world-wide convertible currencies - the dollar, the euro and the yen.
The West will calmly and stubbornly cut off the Russian dog's tail piece by piece.
The West will punish those countries that provide Russia with vital oxygen - for example, with sanctions against subsidiaries of Russian banks that were created in China to circumvent sanctions.
The West will hold its football championships and Olympic Games, will create among its voters the feeling that nothing special is happening, that everything is going as usual and “according to plan,” but it will systematically tighten its grip and break the back of Putin’s monster state.

Time is on the side of the West. War of attrition is the West's most powerful weapon.
Yes, Russia can try and of course fail (because China, India and imagine Pakistan!) will scold, beat and offend it if it decides to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine - for example, when the Crimean Bridge is destroyed, or when one its separate army will be surrounded and systematically destroyed after supply lines are cut off, or when its strategic bombers based at airfields 1000 km from the Ukrainian border are systematically disabled once and for all. But how to use tactical nuclear weapons against the stock market of New York, London or Hong Kong, just because the ruble has become 1/300th of the dollar or euro?

This is a new strategy of the West - it is similar to what the famous Roman statesman and commander Quintus Fabius Maximus did with Carthage - “Cunctator”, “Retarder”. He did not engage in direct and decisive battle with the Carthaginians, but sought to steadily and systematically deplete their army, led not by an outrageous misunderstanding like Gerasimov, but by a genius like Hannibal. The “Cunctator” struck at their communications and at small parts of them that were lagging behind or had moved too far forward, gradually limited the lands that were under Carthaginian rule, waited as long as necessary, acted patiently until the enemy finally weakened and was exhausted in meaningless maneuvers that had no strategic or tactical significance. And while he, the enemy, was forming a false belief about complete disinterest in any victory of the opposing side (now this is the West). And as soon as the enemy has completely lost his way and believes that every blackmail works, every racketeering is justified, every extortion is cashed in, then he too will be beaten where it hurts most...

====

And why does the new, finally clarified and accepted strategy of the West hurt me?
Because there is no special place for Ukraine in this strategy...
Ukraine will receive assistance, which will still serve primarily to gradually exhaust Russia.
The West does not at all put the victory of Ukraine as the main goal of its strategy. Ukraine’s war against the damned rashists is needed precisely to exhaust Russia. This contributes to the achievement of this main goal of the West.

That the exhaustion of Russia will be accompanied by the exhaustion of Ukraine, that Ukrainian cities will be destroyed, that thousands and thousands of civilian and military Ukrainians will die, that Ukraine will suffer and suffer, that its blood will bleed - this is only a detail of the new strategy of the West.
As they say, art requires sacrifice.
Liberating the world from the curse of Putin's Russia, from this monster state, requires sacrifices.
Ukraine in this case was simply unlucky, terribly unlucky to be the neighbor of a monster.
Ukraine is part of the currency that will be used to “purchase” the liberation of our world from such a barbaric evil as Putin’s Russia.

But later, golden rain will fall over Ukraine. Not the “Marshall” plan, but the “Super-Marshall”, “Mega-Marshall”, “Giga-Marshall” plan will revive Ukraine.
The devastation in Ukraine will be restored. With billions in compensation from the West and billions in reparations from Russia, Ukraine will heal its terrible infrastructure destruction and material wounds. But for the human sacrifices and for the moral wounds of dear and beloved Ukraine, there is and cannot be any compensation.
Ukraine will rise like a Phoenix from the ashes of war...
But that will come later. After a certain time. Some day.

Until then, what will happen to my Kharkov friends, my Kharkov brothers and sisters for almost 50 years now?
How will they be until a good future comes for Ukraine - will they be alive, will they be healthy? They are my peers. And at my age, certain periodic scheduled or unscheduled repairs are necessary - in the body and in the soul. But for them, these pains and illnesses remain and will remain in the background for a long time. My friends in Kharkov cannot and have nowhere to afford the necessary treatment.

Four months under continuous bombing by the Russians was not enough for the West to help Kharkov with at least some air defense...

The West's new strategy has a macro goal, but what about the micro-lives of ordinary Ukrainians? With casualties on the battlefield and under the remains of buildings from various missiles?
For the West, all of them were and remain collateral tactical losses (not even losses, but damage) during the implementation of the Strategy.
This is always the case with great Strategy, grand Strategy. Ordinary people are a common resource in its implementation.

====

And finally, a few more words about the humiliating night blindness and disgusting moral impurity of our Bulgarian president.
Who could have thought that he would degrade into such a useless for Bulgaria, harmful for Bulgaria, intolerable for Bulgaria, ugly for Bulgaria creature?!
A creature so blind, deaf, dumb and insensitive to Bulgaria!?
This creature does not see, does not hear, does not understand, does not realize what the new Strategy of the West is. And that in this new Strategy of the West there is and will be no place not only for rashism, but also for racist scumbags, degenerates, servants and traitors.

The West will win the war against Putin's monster state. And the West will not only write the History of this war, as victors always do, but he will also condemn its instigators legally and its accomplices morally.

This creature under the guise of the President of Bulgaria is dangerous not only for Bulgaria. It is dangerous to itself! Because one day he will be nailed to the stake of national contempt. And it will become a byword for shame and betrayal! Even regardless of whether and to what extent his actions deserve this shame and betrayal, this transformation into a synonym for evil and harm to Bulgaria and its national security. Even for its very existence as a country. As Bulgaria.

06/17/2024

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