Clarification [may not be read]: On my site, there is a section „Scientific Publications“ and there is published a Security Study under number 18: „Applications of Game theory in security and conflict situations (conflicts)“. In this Study, some principles related to the present text are explained in much more detail (http://nslatinski.org/?q=en/node/4098).
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Game theory has many applications in Security Science.
Game theory is a class of mathematical methods for studying optimal strategies in conflict situations and competitive interactions called games.
„Game“ is a process expressed in strategic interaction (through confrontation and/or cooperation) in which two or more parties („players“) participate, fighting for the realization of their interests. Each party, using its available resources, pursues its goals with the help of a certain rational strategy by choosing among alternative solutions and considering the moves of the opponents.
It is extremely important that the opposing sides play, figuratively speaking, the same game. Since individual types (kinds) of games are composed of competitive interactions (battles, struggles, confrontations) ranked by importance, difficulty, strategies used and resources applied; when two players (actors, agents) participate in games of different levels, practically always defeats that opponent who participates in a more complex game, i.e. in a higher level game.
For example, the participant in game GO beats the participant in game Chess.
One of the most common classes of competitive conflict model problems in security includes the following games (arranged by conflict level):
Deadlock;
Stag Hunt;
Prisoner's Dilemma; and
Chicken.
I will not go into detail with descriptions of all these games, I will mention only the fourth and charged with the greatest, leading to catastrophic, destructive potential game – Chicken.
I will recall what was said above – if one participant participates in a game with a lower destructive potential (Deadlock, Stag Hunt, Prisoner's Dilemma), and the other participates in the game Chicken, it is guaranteed that in the vast majority of cases it will be the second participant who wins.
What is the game Chicken, which can also be called „Who is the coward?“.
The American economist and prominent specialist in the field of international relations and national security Thomas Schelling (1921 – 2016) cites the example of how, after the Second World War, the American youth entertained themselves with the Chicken game. Two of them are driving trucks (or cars, motorbikes) at high speed against each other, and the one who turns first and deviates from the road is a „chicken“, i.e. a coward – to him tonight is shame. For the other, the evening is the happiest because all the girls dance with him and look at him with ecstatic eyes.
Putin is currently playing this very strategic game – „Chicken“ („Who is the coward?“), while the West is playing another game, lower in complexity and destructive potential.
That is why even such a coward and a wretch as Putin possesses the strategic initiative.
The game Chicken („Who is the coward?“) is precisely a strategic game of escalation. With it, the one who decisively increases the speed and scares the other, that he will not swerve for anything in the world, almost always wins.
The West is constantly signaling weakness:
--- just let's not push Putin to the wall;
--- don't even think about Ukraine bombing targets on the territory of Russia;
--- to prevent something catastrophic from happening;
--- under no circumstances should we make Putin do something crazy and use a nuclear weapon!
I won't get into the details of whether the West imagines and hopes that it can all work out, as the West has limited itself to playing the Prisoner's Dilemma game, or the Stag Hunt game, not to mention that I think the West has the guts to max out the Deadlock game.
Either way, by refusing to play the Chicken game („Who is the coward?“), the West puts itself in the weak, the vulnerable, the bending, the discrediting position.
The West is not playing the Chicken game, and if it thinks it is, it does so with a clearly declared willingness when the going gets tough to turn the wheel, to give in and in fact to lose.
Thus, the West only allows Putin to increase the speed!
And Putin, seeing how the West is afraid of a conflict with him and therefore does not dare to even think about fighting for Ukraine, is already starting to blackmail the West (increasing the speed, escalating the conflict) by openly threatening Lithuania and Poland.
Especially Lithuania!!!!
This is how Putin understands the signals of moderation (cowardice, compromise, yielding) of the West – the West will not fight for Ukraine, therefore the West will not fight for Lithuania or Estonia, for Moldova or Bulgaria.
No matter how the West spins it, the West can only successfully confront and defeat Putin if it raises its level of involvement in conflict to the game of Chicken („Who is the coward?“) !
The West should not only not be afraid of escalation, it should seek this escalation and turn it into a strategy of its behavior!
Putin only understands force.
Any reasonableness of the West Putin perceives as a weakness of the West.
Any compromise by the West is perceived by Putin as an escape from a confrontation by the West.
Any concession to the West Putin perceives as the characterlessness of the West.
Any gesture of goodwill from the West is perceived by Putin as a reluctance to disrupt its complacent hedonism from the West.
The West has no other useful move, the West has no moral justification for its behavior so far - the West must participate boldly and decisively precisely in the highest level of the game, and that level is the Chicken game („Who is the coward?“). Only in this way will the West show and prove that Putin is a coward.
Conflict can be de-escalated precisely by being escalated. De-escalation through escalation!
The West is called upon and called upon to take a bold and uncompromising step forward against a feigned rabid and insane Putin. And then the West will make Putin afraid, crouch down, turn by turning the steering wheel, shout in a loud voice - ah, how bad the West is! And give in.
Putin's strength is the West's fear.
But the West's strength is Putin's fear.
Putin is a pathetic coward.
Khrushchev turned out to be a pathetic coward in the same game during the Caribbean crisis.
But then the Kennedy brothers decided to play the Chicken game („Who is the coward?“) and won!
I see no other alternative for the West if it wants to save Ukraine, Europe, itself and the world!
The West must go against Putin. In a way that only the West is obliged to do and only the West can do.
This is both a necessary and sufficient condition for Putin to be defeated. That's the only way a pathetic, vile, mentally ill, disgusting coward can be defeated – by showing him that no one is afraid of him. More precisely – that the West is not afraid of him.
A rabid dog gets his tail docked up to the ears.
There is no other solution. There was no other solution. And there won't be other solution.
P.S.
In the American film $Rebel Without a Cause“ (1955) with the late talented actor James Dean (1931 – 1955) in the title role of the confused, but honest, principled and courageous James "Jim", "Jimbo" Stark, the "Chicken" game has a slightly different look – two young men at a given signal drive their cars at top speed to the edge of the Millertown cliff overhanging the sea, and the first to jump from their car is a coward (he is the chicken). Jimbo jumps out of the car at the last moment, and his opponent Buzz Henderson fails, flies into the abyss and dies.
This is how the West „Jimbo“ will defeat the sly Putin „Buzz“ and send him into the abyss of History. Make no doubt that this is exactly what will happen.
It will happen!
07/30/2023
