Let's abstract from the daily details to look at the processes from above and longer term.
Why did I claim before February 24 that the War of rashism against Ukraine was inevitable, and on February 23 I wrote that it was only a matter of hours away?
Because unlike the vast majority of analysts in the West, I did not see this War as an anomaly, as an abnormality, but as a rear-guard fight with a retreat of the current world order.
The current world order was formed gradually after the end of the bi-polar confrontation. Part of it was also the West's basic deal with Russia - the West receives energy raw materials from Russia at normal (in separate periods and at reduced) prices, and in return turns a blind eye to the actions of the Russian government inside Russia.
Many gained a lot from the current world order - both in the West and in Russia. One of its structural defects was that China was not part of its basic equation.
This current world order had exhausted itself and existed by inertia. China appeared on the stage claiming to be one of the first violins in the main geostrategic orchestra, and Putin's Russia could not (did not want to) develop as a modern and prosperous liberal democracy, fell into totalitarian convulsions, kept a negligible share of the world GDP and practically lost the right to the place that the current world order had allocated to it, based on the memory of the bi-polar confrontation.
For the geopolitically deranged and psychologically damaged Putin, there remained - he thought - only one move - to hit the table with his military potential (with his military potentia) and scare the world with his nuclear genitalia. A natural result of this was the War against Ukraine, which he hinted at in 2008 in Munich, and wrote the first page in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. For a political bandit who turned the excess of state power into an organized criminal group, there was obviously no other useful move.
The current world order hoped to survive and continue to exist by assimilating the Russia-Ukraine War on the principle that Russia should not lose, Ukraine should not win. An absolute illusion. Mainly because it had exhausted itself, and such an approach meant either its agony or its disintegration by explosion (outward) or collapse (inward), leaving in its place chaos and anarchy, or at least an-archy – ie. a geopolitical vacuum without a single pole, without a single supporting structure. It would be ritual suicide of the West.
The problem is, however, that too many politicians, businessmen, organizations, structures, overt and covert entities, a legion of closed communities and societies profited from the previous world order. It was a profitable deal for them, in which the investment had a colossal rate of return. Therefore, the moment it became clear that the Ukrainian counter-offensive could crush the Russians and thus finally crush this previous world order, a mass mobilization for a counter-offensive against the Ukrainian counter-offensive began from various countries, services, financial magnates and transnational, supranational and national corporations .
Right now, let me say it again - I've been saying it for a long time, there is an aggressive counter-offensive against the Ukrainian counter-offensive. In vain! These are rearguard battles with the retreat of a going and even gone world order.
The current world order is unsalvageable, it cannot be resuscitated. In its place will come a new world order. And it will be positive, constructive, stimulating development and leading human civilization to a better future. But this will happen only if Ukraine defeats Russia!
So it turned out that the fate of the new world order is directly related to the victory of the Ukrainian counteroffensive!
This is the current historical truth and an unappealable historical verdict.
In my opinion, Ukraine will win over Russia.
In the new world order, they will be harshly isolated and uncompromisingly marginalized both
--- pseudo-state terrorist groups that act as state-like organized crime groups (such as the Islamic State),
--- countries built on the model of organized criminal groups that act as terrorist groups (such is the Rashist State).
In the new world order, all kinds of pathogenic symbioses and synergies of organized crime and terrorism will be rooted out, and such are both the Islamic State and the Rashist State, each in its own way.
Of course, it is very important whether the West will realize this challenge, whether far-sighted and visionary strategic Western leaders will be found to give a chance and an impetus to the new world order. Geotectonic plates are shifting. Any development is possible, but the best for the world is the coming of this new world order of which I speak. This new world order is best for the West, for Europe, and for Bulgaria. Also, he is best for that Russia that will survive after Putin.
If it wants to survive, Russia will survive.
Another question is does Russia want to survive. Let's hope he wants to.
But it is one thing to want, another to be able, third and fourth – to do it.
04/15/2023
