The war of rashism against Ukraine is entering a new, winter phase.
There are at least four features of this new phase, or at least perceptions about it, that can be noted.
First, the successes of the Ukrainian armed forces are becoming so obvious and so frequent that even the most exalted supporters of Ukraine begin to disbelieve their eyes or dare not believe this winning move. They, even they also become skeptical, fearing that the constant retreat from the until recently symbolic positions of the rashist hordes is the result of some very vilely considered out and very insidiously thought out Kremlin strategy aimed at dragging the enemy into a trap or into a sack, and then begin to exterminate him.
Secondly, the Kremlin villain seems to have finally realized the whole tragic truth about the war and its dramatic development and, using the concepts of Security Science, he gave his hysterical consent to the transition from the “Maximum Goals” strategy to the “Minimum Resources” strategy.
This means that any illusions of victory over Ukraine as large as possible in terms of territorial coverage and combat successes have already been discarded, and regroupings and redeployments are beginning to take place to consolidate what has been achieved by defending positions that can be held and maintaining territorial gains that can be defended.
Moreover, although this villain – in the spirit of the historical traditions of Russia – fights not with skill, but with numbers and does not give a damn about the life of an ordinary soldier and officer, nevertheless, the human losses of the rashists in this war have already reached such a quantity and (evil) quality that they have oppressive and panicky impact on ever wider sections, parts and even vast ethnic and religious groups of society.
It also takes time for the inexperienced men who are constantly called to war (and despite the announced end of the moGilization, it continues every day - it doesn’t matter whether it’s on weekdays or on weekends) learn how to fight somehow. After all, it can be seen with the naked eye that they are not just cannon fodder, but they are literally sent to be slaughtered – they are killed ruthlessly and with some new even for Ukrainians after nine months of a terrible war against their homeland, cold-blooded and often even brutal zeal.
Thirdly, both warring parties are rebuilding their armed forces for a long period – after all, everyone faces (at least) 2-3 months of a harsh winter. The Rashists understand that their troops – like equipment, clothing, infrastructure and supply lines – are not ready to fight in the winter. At the beginning of this war, no one in the Kremlin and around Kremlin thought (just as the Nazis did not once think) that there would be a war in the winter (2022-2023). And this is another reason why the rashist hordes retreat, withdraw, regroup and place themselves much more compactly - where they can more painlessly spend the winter and hold their positions.
At the same time, even much better prepared for the winter Ukrainian troops are also regrouping and redeploying, in order to use – even for propaganda purposes - their territorial gains and probe the vulnerabilities of the Rashists in order to win more local successes, albeit mainly symbolic, but inspiring confidence in victory.
However, winter is likely to force both opposing sides into a static (due to harsh climatic conditions) phase of the war with separate and episodic battles of little strategic importance. The Ukrainians will have a positional advantage, but, as in chess, a positional advantage often does not reduce the chances of a defending country for a draw. And in unison with chess terminology, the Rashists are already striving precisely for a draw – so that, so to speak, the war slows down and almost stops, so that the war reaches a dead end, so that it becomes banal, reaches a state where nothing decisively new happens on its fronts, and it will start to tire the world, and especially the West. And the world, especially the West, will learn not to pay her the previous attention, more and more often experiencing boredom and confusion when hearing about her.
Fourthly, winter comes not only to war, but to everyone else and to everything else. Unlike other seasons, winter is an extremely unfavorable, unpleasant, bad and downright disgusting time of the year – especially when just such a war is waged.
Especially when the war is on the territory of a country like Ukraine and against the territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of a country like Ukraine, a state that must be unconditionally supported by the democratic world, Europe and the United States.
And twice as much when there is an unprovoked and unjust, aggressive and oppressive war, as a result of the actions of such a monster as the Kremlin villain. The democratic world, Europe and the US cannot allow this villain to achieve even part of his villainous goals.
In this war, with the onset of winter, rashism is moving much of its attention, and I would say its hopes, off the battlefield – to what is happening in the countries of the EU, NATO, the West, and even the whole world.
Rashism tries to turn anxious expectations with the onset of winter, and even more so, with the winter itself, into its strategic ally. Winter is counted with its peculiarities and difficulties
to weaken unity especially in Europe and the US,
to refocus on domestic issues and already begin to wane attention to the war in these countries,
to strengthen everyone's desire to finally find a peaceful way out of the war,
to escalate the pressure on Ukraine to agree in theory - to reasonable compromises, and in practice - to make territorial concessions,
and thus give grounds to the Kremlin villain to retroactively justify his war and declare it his next historic victory. With which he will gain time for himself – both as staying in power and as preparation for another similar war.
In no case should we have illusions and underestimate precisely this fourth characteristic of the new phase of the war – the transfer (albeit symbolically) of the battle from the Ukrainian battlefields to the fields of public opinion in the countries of the democratic world, especially in the countries of The West and above all in the EU and NATO countries.
10.11.2022
Brief explanation:
These texts have been translated into English by me. They have not been read and edited by a native English speaker, nor by a professional translator. Therefore, all errors and ambiguities caused by the quality of the translation are solely mine. But I have been guided by the thought that the purpose of these texts is to show my opinion on a number of hot topics, and not to demonstrate excellent English, which, unfortunately, I cannot boast of.
